It isn't hard to understand. Best case, the stock will rally to $7 and drop to $5 on the ex-date. In which case you get the dividend for free plus a $2 gain from current levels. Worst case, the stock will not go up and drops to $2 on the ex-date. But if that's the case then you can load up one day before the ex-date, book the gain, and sell most of your shares afterwards for $2. And the third option, if they spin off half now then the stock won't come down at all from current levels. You get the dividend for free.
Institutions and others who are selling now are not aware of it. When the selling pressure goes away, the stock will begin to move up. Perhaps next week.
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