It's weird, eh? I guess many people could be affected by sentiment, fed up with the delays, or simply lose confidence because the stock keeps going down. You don't have to ask yourself why institutions are selling.
Time perhaps to explain how I get to a score of 8.97 for SIAF. Indeed, a once in a lifetime opportunity, according to my model!
1) Valuation = 10.0 (Weight = 4)
This is a P/E derivative. Plus or minus 0.5 depending on P/B. Scores of 12 are even possible in the China space (for companies trading at a P/E of 0.3).
2) Growth = 8.75 (Weight = 6)
Growth is hard to predict. I struggle sometimes with this. I give a score of 8 if I don't know or if I can't be sure. In SIAF's case it should be rather obvious. If they can get pre-IPO financing and convince me that the pace of construction will be fast, I could boost this number as high as 9.5. And it will have a significant impact on the overall score.
3) Risk = 8 (Weight = 4)
This includes risk of bankruptcy, going dark, short attack. Etc.
I usually don't give Chinese companies a score higher than 8. Although it has happened on occasion in the past. Only XIN and SIAF get a score of 8 today. I'm not sure what has to happen for me to upgrade here. Perhaps a better cash flow position, quarterly cash dividends. So we can keep the shorts off our back. But I will know when it happens.
4) Adaptability = 9.5 (Weight = 4)
We're still lacking guidance. But with the carve-outs, spin-offs, better cash flow position, loan for Tri-way, I can't justify a lower score. And, they filed on time.
5) Priority = 9 (Weight = 2)
I will upgrade to 9.5 if we get the PRE14C.
6) Reliability = 8.5 (Weight = 2)
Used to be higher in the past. But with cattle price all over the place... And no guidance!
Overall, there could still be a couple of upgrades coming. And if the share price doesn't go up, it will be even more ridiculously valued.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
