Replies to post #977 on Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[Oren1976]

I m afraid you didn't get my point. I don't talk about survival. Go to the pdf file u found the info search in document the word pancreatic. It will be showed 2 times...

"The solid tumor Phase III transition success rate (34.2%, n=260) ended up as the lowest for any of the major disease categories
studied. Solid tumor drugs for pancreatic cancer seemed to have the toughest challenges in Phase III studies (13.3%, n=15).
However, Phase III success rates for Ovarian and Gastric cancers also fell below 30%. "

Now this is what I did. Since 13.3% out of average 40% of phase 3 success is 1/3 I took the 1/3 And used it in the phase 2 average which is 24% so 1/3 of 24 is 8 so approximately 8% to pass phase 2 but it's not true it's around 4% or 5% because ph3 is easier to pass so it's not linear and it should be less than 1/3 but I assumed linear comparison . Do u understand what I did ? Since the pdf has specific info of chance of success in ph3 per cancer type but missing the info of phase 2 success in SPECIFIC CANCER TYPE I just took the relative numbers and assumed linear but it's not linear

[Oren1976]

There is a connection between survival rate and chance to pass trial. Look at the numbers. In general the toughest the cancer the less chance u have to pass the phase 2 .scroll down to phase 3 chance ovarian has less than 30% while average is 40% . It's true that this connection is not in every cancer but in general we can assume that.