Replies to post #972 on Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[Oren1976]

And just remember one of the reasons trump won is weak opponent. Avastin is very easy to beat. Except of some deadly side effect and provoking the cancer it does nothing. I can beat avastin with some change in diet positive thinking cannabis and whiskey . I continue to be vblt chicken the CEO is also a chicken but from the other type.

[wcopeland]

Oren, there is no point in chastising him. He made the decision he needed to make. You do not completely know his situation.

But I do agree with your perspective of treating the science and medicine as science and medicine. Adding your own emotion will not change the outcome.

Also, the clinical trial success rates you mentioned seem a little off. Here is a study that gets you much closer to the real numbers: Clinical Development Success Rate 2006-2015


Ph1 -> Ph2 success rate: 62.8% oncology (63.2% overall)
Ph2 -> Ph3 success rate: 24.6% oncology (30.7% overall)
Ph3 -> NDA/BLA success rate: 40.1% oncology (58.1% overall)

Ph2 -> Approval cumulative success rate: 8.1% oncology (15.3% overall)
Ph3 -> Approval cumulative success rate: 33.0% oncology (49.6% overall)

Since we have an SPA for GLOBE that guarantees approval if success, our likelihood probably falls much closer to the 40.1% before considering VB-111's specific advantages. For example, as Oren said, it passed all 3 Ph2 trials with great results. But at the end of the day, it is still always a likelihood, we will need to wait until next year for confirmation of the success.

You are correct, holding through Ph2 is MUCH more risky than holding after Ph2.