If you think about it, slightly above the median sounds about where you would expect Mr. Sheep to land. Mr. Sheep is not an extremist, and he has some help.
The very nature of his holdings make it hard for him to be that much of an outlier. And, since his picks reflect the consensus of a number of experienced stock pickers, you would think he'd be biased a little more positive than negative.
It is pretty easy to have one pick that is 100% non-sheepish and does very well or very poorly. It is much harder to have all 3 picks be non-sheepish and ALL do very well or very poorly. And even harder to do that 5 contests in a row.
Overall, I think "regression to the mean with a slight positive bias" is what a self-confident sheep might reasonably expect.
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