Replies to post #302 on Mongolian Mining Corp. (MOGLF)

[Ponch73]

If Mongolia really did only export 3.44mt in April, it's clearly a disappointing number given the supply disruptions in Australia.

It also suggests that MCC is on a 1.0-1.1 mt pace for Q2 (using your formula of 10% share of Mongolian exports for MMC).

I think MMC is going to miss their 4.5mt annual guidance, especially when you consider that Australia is probably coming back online in a big way at this point, and will likely take back lost market share.

This news couldn't come at a better time, especially given the relative strength of the stock in the last 2-3 weeks.

[OMOLIVES]

I found my error here:

OMOLIVES Friday, 05/19/17 03:24:24 PM
Re: OMOLIVES post# 299
Post # of 302

Damn it....right in front of my face:

This was the highest level of shipments from Indonesia to China since December, and it's possible the April figure could be revised higher in coming days as cargoes that arrived at the end of the month get added to the count.

www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-china-idUSKBN17Z0XM

Can't believe I missed that originally....that's the difference.

So it was flawed given lack of data.....that's all

SXcoal provided the headline...I do not have a subscription to read it any further. So it seems in line.

!!But this is where it gets really strange...straight out of the "twilight zone"....in my course of finding my error...I came across this.........and it is odd:


http://www.sxcoal.com/news/146257/info/en

Mongolia Apr coal export up 71pct on mth
?2016-05-18 14:30:49 ?Import & Export, International ? sxcoal.com

Mongolia exported 5.56 million tonnes of coal in April, surging 71.12% from March, the latest data from the Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia showed.

During the month, Mongolia exported 3.64 million tonnes of coking coal, up 52.94% month on month. Of this, washed coking coal exports stood at 530,000 tonnes, up 50.84% on the month; raw coking coal exports 2.14 million tonnes, up 111.36%; while exports of semi-soft coking coal down 5.18% from the previous month to 970,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, thermal coal exports stood at 1.9 million tonnes in April, soaring 120.89% month on month.

In April, the country's output and sales of coal stood at 7.98 million and 8.41 million tonnes, rising 56.37% and up 50.15% month on month, respectively.

Over January-April, Mongolia's coal exports stood at 11.4 million tonnes; total coal output at 18.99 million tonnes; and the sales at 19.24 million tonnes.

Mongolia's domestic coal consumption reached 2.85 million tonnes in April, up 21.22% from March, and total coal consumption during the first four months amounted to 7.84 million tonnes.


(Writing by Evie Feng Editing by Harry Huo)

That did not happen in 2016....so the time stamp is incorrect...but when the hell did it happen?....anyhow...really strange ..especially given the export number and my original spec...geesh.