Replies to post #12002 on General Stock Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Yes, all true, but it's still best to wait until the market stops going up before shorting since the odds of guessing the top are very slim.

Looking at the 2007/08/09 chart, it took approx 1.5 years from top to bottom. The market peaked in late 2007, but you could have waited for the collapse of Bear Sterns in March 2008 to go short, and still more than double your money by the time the market bottomed in early 2009.

When the big crisis comes this time, as in 2007/08, events will likely unfold for months before the crash starts. So there isn't a big rush to jump in on the short side, you can just wait until the crisis begins.

An alternate approach is to just trade the normal corrections rather than the big collapse. That's a lot less risky, you can use TA signals, and 5-10% corrections are a lot more common than big crashes. But the flip side is if the potential of the trade is only 5-10%, why bother? You can boost the potential profit by leverage 2X, 3X or using LEAPs, but then the risk goes way up too.

Being conservative, I view not losing money as a victory, but most people here on I-Hub are on the gunslinger side of the spectrum :o)

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looks like good timing with those AG and NGD trades. Gold and silver were definitely due for a bounce.

Chart-wise, the 200 MA for gold is 1250, so that could be an near term target. The silver chart was more oversold, with its 200 MA way up around 17.80, so it may not make it that far in this move.

The silver ETF (SLV) may be a good tool to watch. It's up to 15.84 and the 50 MA is currently 16.56, so that could be a good near term target, barring any renewed Fedster suppression.
Beyond that is the 200 MA at 16.89.

Looking at the gold ETF (GLD), it's at 117.43 and the 50 MA is 118.62 and 200 MA is 119.16, so those are good near term targets to watch.

I'm not sure about Rinear's idea of rolling the profits into another contract though. Sometimes it's better to just take the money/profit and run, lol. I'm not that well versed in options, but the 'rolling' idea might work best during a sustained up trend, and the metals always seem to have trouble maintaining a sustained up move for very long. The vicious smack down phase always arrives eventually, and the options profits could thus evaporate quickly. The Fedsters' goal seems to be to never allow a sustained up trend to last for long.