I think P will move the stock first. If enrollment is completed by the end of this month, then the interim analysis should be available in mid-July to early August. Last year the SP doubled about four weeks before the top-line result.
Some will tell you that interim analysis is standard practice. True, but it's usually for the whole treatment period. For example, B-OM's interim contains data after 11 weeks, not 5.5 weeks. P's interim will be after 6 weeks, but the total treatment period is 12 weeks + 4 weeks observation. That's unusual because sponsors know the FDA won't stop the trial early even if the results are excellent. Psoriasis isn't a life-threatening condition like cancer. They also know that the results at midpoint doesn't guarantee the drug will or won't work at the end. So someone else must want to take an early look at the data.
I'm sure you know that P doesn't have to spectacular to match Otela's 33% PASI 75 vs. 5% placebo result. Cabel made some excellent points on why P will do better in Phase 2b.
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