I agree. There are some fat gaps left behind by this run that will need to be filled... and they go all the way back down to the $14's. This also ran very quickly on low volume which means there's isn't much support between those gaps. All the technicals and indicators say over-bought. TWTR's own guidance anticipates continued losses for another quarter or two minimum. MAU's went up slightly but TWTR is losing even more in YoY revenue further demonstrating that they can't capitalize on those additional users. Over a year of history shows TWTR won't break above $18's without real game changing news and is more likely to be volatile between $14.50-$18.50 pps. Insiders sold off $9M in company shares over the past 90 days where Dorsey had to stop the bleed by buying them back out of his own pocket. I could go on about why the numbers just don't support $18's pps right now.
As for TWTR's plans, I really like the streaming TV idea but most of the contracts announced are brands that are very niche with limited viewership potential. I think combined, they might only just make up for TWTR losing the NFL to Amazon. Competition in this area is already increasing with FaceBook taking on TWTR's and (the even more horrible social media company) SNAP's live products simultaneously without breaking a sweat. Streaming TV-like content simply isn't protectable IP so it made sense when Amazon decided to augment their video catalog by stealing NFL streaming from TWTR to slow TWTR's momentum as a competitior while also better competing with Netflix... who are very likely thinking of adding live streaming of their own. It was a great idea TWTR but now leave it to the big dogs to make some money from it.
The only wildcard is the very low possibility of a buyout which I do think TWTR is still trying to position itself for. It seems like they're taking purposeful action based on criticisms from the bargaining table last winter anyway. They're cleaning up some toxicity for suitors like Disney. They're improving their AI and increasing the value of their user data for buyers like Google. Unfortunately, I think these larger suitors will simply wait for TWTR to improve their platform but continue to fail monetarily on their own so they can get the best of both worlds... better assets at a cheaper price. Smaller companies like Salesforce and Verizon can't even bid with a pps in the middle teens when they factor in the massive hit their share prices will take from their investors for spending too much on a company that doesn't make any profits.
Anyway, there's lots of plays to make money on this volatile stock and I just couldn't ignore the opportunity to sell my freshly long $14's on this sham of a run and then bet on the inevitable crash. We'll see what happens from there but I gave this company a good year to get their act together and now it's time for me to play this stock fast'n'loose to follow the money. All IMO and GL.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
