THE CONTROL NUMBER WORKS
THE "FAIREST" CONSIDERATION
TO BE ON TRACK FOR $22M REV
Calculations Too Complex To State. Taking
Into Account Any Possible Increases That
Might Occur Mo-To-Mo, Relative To 2016 .
AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM
THIS IS NEEDED FOR APRIL
Scripts: 22,147 / 25 W-Days = 886
Rx Rev: 22,147 X $89.01 = $1.97M
Estimated Service Rev = $12,000
Total Rev Needed = $1,983,333
Not A "Growth" Calculation. Just What Is
Relatively Acceptable To Stay On Track
To Achieve $22M Rev Goal For 2017 .
The Number To Maintain For Measuring
Relative Current "Growth" is still 728 .
THE COMPANY AND CATALYSTS
The Company Attempted To Invent A Catalyst.
And To Then Keep Feeding That "Story-Line",
Trying To Keep The $22M Myth Alive, As Well
As Others, Which None Will Happen. Only To
Backfire, Leading To More Disappointment.
When Nothing Good Is Happening, It Can Be
A Little Frustrating. So What Happens, Is That
The Co Gets Into A Habit Of Trying To Create
A False Perception Of An Impending Catalyst.
This Leads To Big Disappointments When
The Anticipated News Always Falls Short Of
Expectations... Followed With Poor Excuses.
These Intentions Of "Irrational Exuberance"
Just End Up Being Their Own Worst Enemy.
=================================
The Beauty Of The W-Day Control Number Is
That It Takes Into Account All Variables And
All Of The Perceived Excuses That Are Used
EXCUSES DO NOT HOLD UP
Notice That All Of The "Excuses", Like
Seasonality, Do Not Hold Up When :
1) Experiencing The Continued Growth
From The Last Half Avg Of 2015, Then
Going Into The First Half Avg Of 2016 .
2) While Comparing It To Contraction
From The Last Half Avg Of 2016, Then
Going Into The First Half Avg Of 2017 .
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
This Is Just One Of The Many Many Facts That
Continue To Debunk All The Garbage Analysis
That Have Relentlessly Failed At Proving Any
Continued Growth In A Contraction Scenario
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
VALUABLE CONTRACTION DATA
Price / Script = Subtract Est Service
Then Round Off To Nearest Dollar
Mo ------- Rx -------- Rev ------ $/Rx ------ #
Prev Six Month Control # --------------- 625
Jan --- 15,500 --- $1.30M --- $84.00 --- 646
Feb --- 16,700 --- $1.10M --- $66.00 --- 696
Mar --- 18,600 --- $1.50M --- $81.00 --- 689
Apr --- 16,500 --- $1.40M --- $85.00 --- 635
May --- 17,500 --- $1.40M --- $80.00 --- 700
Jun --- 18,000 --- $1.70M --- $94.00 --- 692
All Months Exceeded 625 Control #
Averaged 51 Extra Scripts Per W-Day
Now Creates A New 676 Control #
THEN ANOTHER GROWTH SPURT
New Six Month Control # --------------- 676
July --- 16,600 --- $1.50M --- $90.00 --- 664
Aug --- 20,000 --- $1.75M --- $87.00 --- 741
Sep --- 19,000 --- $1.60M --- $84.00 --- 760
Oct --- 18,600 --- $1.60M --- $86.00 --- 744
Nov --- 18,500 --- $1.70M --- $91.00 --- 771
Dec --- 18,000 --- $1.70M --- $94.00 --- 692
All But July Exceed 676 Control #
Averaged 52 Extra Scripts Per W-Day
Now Creates A New 728 Control #
New Six Month Control # --------------- 728
Jan --- 17,500 --- $1.60M --- $91.00 --- 729
Feb --- 16,500 --- $1.50M --- $90.00 --- 717
Mar --- 18,500 --- $1.60M --- $86.00 --- 685
W-Day 728 Control Number Not Being Met
Extra Scripts Per W-Day Are Decreasing
A Topping-Out & Contraction Is Setting In
WHEN COMPARING 728 CONSTANT
A Number Above 728 = POS GROWTH
A Number Around 728 = NO GROWTH
A Number Below 728 = NEG GROWTH
MORE CONTRACTION AHEAD
This Data Shows A Topping-Out And The
Beginning Of Contraction In Each Category.
Which Is Revealed In The Monthly Avg #'s .
Any Subtle Increase In The Price Of Scripts Is
Mostly Due To Inflation And Increasing Costs.
Which Will Show Up In Revenues, Thus Giving
A False Reading For Any Sustained Growth.
Also, Any Sporadic Up & Down Script Prices
Will Reflect Occasional Higher Priced Items.
Such As: Prescribed Scooters, Wheel Chairs,
Beds, Oxygen Tanks, Special Monitors, Etc.
Many Similar Medical Items Like These Exist.
THESE EXCUSES DO NOT WORK
The 1st Excuse For The W-Day 728 Number
Not Being Met Was Because Of: Slow Months
The 2nd Excuse For The W-Day 728 Number
Not Being Met Was Because Of: Seasonality
The 3rd Excuse For The W-Day 728 Number
Not Being Met Was Because Of: Expansion
The 4th Excuse For The W-Day 728 Number
Not Being Met Was Because Of: Compounding
The 5th Excuse For The W-Day 728 Number
Not Being Met Was Because Of: Consolidation
Will There Be A 6th ? . . . Y E S ! ! !
The 6th Excuse For The W-Day 728 Number
Not Being Met Is Because Of: The Inaccurate
Meaning Behind The Quarterly Rotation Of
Revenue, When Comparing Q < Q < Q < Q .
And To Then Compare Year-Over-Year.
SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS KNOW
Any Sophisicated Investor Knows That The
Real Reason Behind "This Company's" Rev
Growth Is The Increasing Costs. Which Are
Handed Down To The Consumer, Skewing
The ACTUAL Results. Eventually Showing
Up As A Disappointingly Low Net Income.
Or Most Likely: A Net Loss.
CONSOLIDATING SCRIPT SUPPLIES
So Then: How Could The Price Per Script Be
Topping-Out And Now Showing Contraction,
If There Has Been A Recent Transition To
Consolidate The Customer 30 Day Script
Supply To A 60 Or 90 Day Supply ?
Wasn't It Implied By Some, That The Price
Per Script Was Suppose To Go Up As The
Amount Of Script Units Flattened-Out, Or
Went Down? Like Some Sort Of Trade-Off ?
It Seems Like A "Convenient Shift", To Now
Focus The Attention On "Consolidation" When
The "Script Count" Was "So Important" Before.
However, The Separate & Independent
Trend In "Script Units" Or "Price", Both
Overwhelmingly Confirm The Prevalent
Existence Of: CONTRACTION
MORE CONTRACTION AHEAD
THE 728 CONTROL NUMBER
The Growth Spurt Last Year Yielded
A Target Avg Of 728 Scripts Per W-Day
This 728 Number Is The Barometer By
Which Changes In Growth Are Measured
But April Actually Needs To Achieve 783
To Bring The Jan+Feb+Mar Low 710 Avg
Back Up To Even, Or Over 728 For Growth
And Remember March Was A Low 685
Using The Q1 Avg Script Price Of $89.01
In Order To Help Estimate April Numbers
NEEDED FOR APRIL TO STAY EVEN
Scripts: 19,572 / 25 W-Days = 783 vs 728
Rx Rev: 19,572 X $89.01 = $1.742M
Estimated Service Rev = $10,000
Total Revenue = $1,752,104
BUT APRIL WON'T EVEN HIT 728
Scripts: 18,200 / 25 W-Days = 728
Rx Rev: 18,200 X $89.01 = $1.620M
Estimated Service Rev = $10,000
Total Revenue = $1,629,982
NUMBERS WILL BE RED AGAIN
GROWTH HAS FALLEN BEHIND
AND IT WILL NEVER CATCH UP
The Hill To Climb Grows Steeper And Steeper
As The Stories For Growth Start Slipping Away
JUST FORGET ABOUT THE $22M
Reality Is Falling Way Behind Projections
* No Matter How You Analyze The Data *
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