Replies to post #28109 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Love Me Do]

UPDATED ANALYSIS

As Of May 17, 2017 :
Estimated To The Best Of My Ability
May Not Be Exact - But Near Enough


FY-2017 PROD + SERV = EST ---> ACTUAL
Q1: 15.40MW + $6M = $20.63M ---> ACTUAL = 19.1M
Q2: 12.69MW + $6M = $18.06M ---> ACTUAL = 15.0M
Q3: 15.95MW + $6M = $21.15M ---> ACTUAL = 20.2M
Q4: 16.30MW + $7M = $22.49M ---> ACTUAL = 22.0M ?
Need To Average $25M To $30M Per Quarter


The Difference Between FY-2017 "Estimates" In
Product Revenue Is $6M More Than The "Actual".
That Difference Could Be In Some Cancelled Orders,
Or They Could Have Been "Shifted" Into FY-2018 Q1.

* Possible Adjustments Of $6M From FY-2017
May Show Up And Then Added To FY-2018 Q1.
Added Below In Red Is A Possible Alternative
That Includes All $6M, Which Is Highly Unlikely.


FY-2018 PROD + SERV = EST ---> ACTUAL
Q1: 06.92MW + $7M = $13.57M ---> ACTUAL = TBA *
Q1: 00.60MW + $7M = $07.57M ---> ACTUAL = TBA
Q2: 11.38MW + $7M = $17.81M ---> ACTUAL = TBA
Q3: 06.38MW + $7M = $13.06M ---> ACTUAL = TBA
Q4: 00.00MW + $7M = $07.00M ---> ACTUAL = TBA
Need To Average $25M To $30M Per Quarter
Even If Off A Little Bit - Q1 Is Looking Very Weak
Usually The Typical Surprise After Any Dilution


PRODUCT REV WILL NEVER HIT $15M
Q4: Product Rev Est = $15.00M ....... At $15M
Q1: Product Rev Est = $06.57M ..... Not $15M *
Q1: Product Rev Est = $00.57M ..... Not $15M
Q2: Product Rev Est = $10.81M ..... Not $15M
Q3: Product Rev Est = $06.06M ..... Not $15M
Q4: Product Rev Est = $00.00M ..... Not $15M
Need To Avg $15M In Product Rev Per Qtr
At The Same Time Avg $10M in Serv Rev


FUTURE FY REVENUE ESTIMATES
2016 Total Fiscal Year - Actual = $85.20M
2017 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $76.30M
2018 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $51.44M *
2018 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $45.44M
2019 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $28.57M
Need To Avg $100M To $120M Per FY


AUTHORIZED & OUTSTANDING
AS = 515,00,000 ----- OS = 36,000,000
AS Kept High To Anticipate 2nd R-Split
OS Is Equivalent To 720M Pre-Split Shs


COMMENTS
Total FY 2017 Revenue Estimated To Be $76M.
But They Need ~$110M For EBITDA Breakeven.
FY 2018 Is Looking To Be The Worst In 10 Yrs.
FY 2019 Has Very Little And Questionable Data.
Need $15M Product + $10M Service Qtrly Revs.
Last Q2: Gross Margin Sank To A Low Of Only 5% .
Last Q3: Gross Margin Worse At "Negative" 20% !
Last Q4: Gross Margin Is Still A Well Kept Secret.
Company Claims It Needs To Avg A "Positive" 23% .
As Well As Reduce Operating Expenses By 42% YoY.


JMO