[tab headline: "The Impossible Math Behind Trump's Tax Cut"]
Photographer: Isaac Brekken/Getty Images
by Peter Coy May 04, 2017 1:21 PM
There’s a reason Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin keeps insisting that his boss’s tax-cut plan [ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-26/white-house-unveils-trump-s-opening-bid-for-biggest-tax-cut ] will fully pay for itself through faster economic growth. Budgetary politics make it hard for him to say anything else. Senate rules require 60 votes for any tax cut that would raise deficits beyond a window of 10 years from the date of passage. Conceding upfront that President Donald Trump’s plan would generate more red ink in the medium to long term would be accepting defeat before the legislative fight has even begun.
“This will pay for itself with growth and with reduction of different deductions and closing loopholes,” Mnuchin said at an April 26 briefing on the one-page outline of a tax plan. National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn didn’t go that far, though he did call the plan “a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do something really big."
This equation is the transversality condition for a government budget. Debt is B, the present time is t, the economy’s growth rate is g, the future time period is s, and infinity is the sideways 8. What all this means is that the present value of government spending has to be matched by the present value of all receipts...in other words, Trump’s tax plan is unsustainable.
Math is not on their side. The budgetary impact of tax legislation is scored by the nonpartisan staff of Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation. Judging from its past calculations, the JCT is likely to agree with independent budget wonks, on the left and right, who have concluded that Trump’s plan would create a gusher of red ink. “No individual tax cut pays for itself,” says Alan Cole, an economist at the right-of-center Tax Foundation. “There has to be a strong mix of tax cuts and revenue-raisers—a good mix of both candies and vegetables. Right now I see things as a little short on vegetables.”
The Trump tax plan, because it generates deficits as far as the eye can see, violates what’s known as the transversality condition, which says that debt relative to the size of the economy cannot grow to infinity; fiscal policy is sustainable over the long run only if there will be surpluses in the future to offset deficits today. True, Keynesian-style tax cuts like President Barack Obama’s 2009 stimulus package also generate red ink, but they’re designed to phase out when the economy no longer needs the jolt.
What makes the Trump tax cuts violate the transversality condition is that they’re intended to be permanent. “If you propose a big tax cut without offsetting spending cuts, then it’s essentially an incomplete proposal,” says Eric Toder, co-director of the Tax Policy Center, a venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. “What you’re implicitly proposing is lower spending and higher taxes in the future.”
The federal budget was on the wrong track even before Trump took office. The Congressional Budget Office said on March 30 that, assuming current laws remain generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would grow from 77 percent of gross domestic product now to 146 percent in 2046, with no end to the upward trend on the horizon. That’s unsustainable. “We have this enormous fiscal gap. We have to be cutting it, not raising it,” says Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economist who harped on deficits when he ran for president last year as an independent.
Since Trump can’t credibly claim that his tax cuts will pay for themselves and not increase the deficit, he’s left with unpleasant options. One is to curtail his cuts in hopes of achieving a score of revenue neutrality from the JCT. He’s already dropped hints that he considers the one-pager as a starting point for negotiations, not a final demand. But while taking candy out of the tax package and adding vegetables would please the JCT, it would make it harder to pass the bill by creating some clear losers: If revenue is to be neutral, inevitably there will be groups whose taxes go up—such as New Yorkers and Californians who would lose the ability to deduct state and local income taxes.
A second option is to schedule the tax cuts to expire by the end of the JCT’s 10-year scoring period, so they can pass with a simple majority in the Senate. That’s what President George W. Bush did, although some of his cuts were later extended. But businesses don’t like to make investment decisions based on tax cuts that won’t last.
A tempting alternative is for Congress to change its rules. Senator Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican, issued a press release on April 26 disdaining “arbitrary budget constraints” and suggesting that it might not be necessary to make Trump’s tax plan revenue-neutral at the end of 10 years. “There are ways to navigate these obstacles,” the statement said, “including the use of a longer horizon,” meaning more time for cuts to generate growth and become revenue-neutral. The Wall Street Journal reported on May 2 that a senior administration official said in late April that no rule requires the window for scoring tax proposals to be 10 years long. A scoring window of 20 or 30 years wouldn’t magically make a deficit-generating tax cut into a surplus-generating one, but it would please businesses by giving them low tax rates for longer.
A third option is to press hard on the argument that any revenue losses are temporary and will be made up as the tax cuts boost economic growth. This is Mnuchin’s case. Likewise, Vice President Mike Pence said [ http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/full-pence-interview-healthcare-reform-is-just-around-the-corner-933158467659 ] on Meet the Press on April 30 that deficits could grow “maybe in the short term,” but added, “If we don’t get this economy growing at 3 percent or more, as the president believes that we can, we’re never going to meet the obligations that we’ve made today.”
Pence is right that stronger growth would solve a host of problems. This is where things get interesting. Suppose that Trump’s tax cuts raise economic growth over the long term, just not enough to fully pay for themselves. Deficits would rise. But if—hypothetically—debt grew more slowly than the economy, debt would shrink in relation to GDP, making it easier to bear. The tax cuts, despite not being revenue-neutral, would bring the budget closer to satisfying the transversality condition—i.e., being sustainable.
Mnuchin hinted at one point in the April 26 briefing that debt sustainability, not revenue neutrality, was the right standard by which to judge Trump’s tax cuts. He said that “this plan is going to lower the debt-to-GDP” ratio. Expect to hear more of that kind of talk in future GOP messaging.
The bottom line: Trump's plan to cut taxes might lead to higher GDP growth, but without spending cuts it will certainly increase the deficit.
Friday, May 5th 2017[, with Roger Stone hosting the fourth hour with an appearance by Jacob Engels]: The House passes an Obamacare repeal and replace bill, but will it make it all the way to the president's desk? How does it differ from the previous "Ryancare" bill? And things look bleak for French nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen, as opponent Macron takes a 24-point lead. We'll go over the latest in the FBI-Comey saga, and examine Obama's comments claiming he feels sad about Trump's presidency.
Mark Green withdraws as Trump’s Army secretary nominee, citing ‘false and misleading attacks’ In this April 2013 photo, Tennessee state Sen. Mark Green sits at his desk in the Senate chamber in Nashville, Tenn. Green’s nomination to Army secretary has been contested by groups angry about his past comments about gender [and other] issues. May 5, 2017 The Trump administration’s second Army secretary nominee withdrew from consideration Friday, a senior defense official said, amid mounting opposition to past comments he made about Islam, evolution and gender issues. Mark E. Green, a firebrand Republican state lawmaker in Tennessee and veteran of the Iraq War, blamed “false and misleading attacks against him” in a statement provided to media. The Pentagon and the White House had no immediate reaction to the move, but it came hours after a Defense Department spokesman declined to say whether Defense Secretary Jim Mattis still supported him for the job. Green pulled out after a month of growing calls for the Trump administration to choose someone else for the job. Advocacy groups for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people immediately launched an effort on Capitol Hill to block his nomination after it was announced April 7, saying his history of antagonism toward them made him an unacceptable choice. Green, a physician who once serviced alongside Army Special Operations troops, expressed frustration about the effort in a Facebook post late last month, and did so again Friday in his statement. “Tragically, my life of public service and my Christian beliefs have been mischaracterized and attacked by a few on the other side of the aisle for political gain,” Green said. “While these false attacks have no bearing on the needs of the Army or my qualifications to serve, I believe it is critical to give the President the ability to move forward with his vision to restore our military to its rightful place in the world.” Among the comments that drew concern were Green saying that if you polled psychiatrists, they would say that “transgender is a disease.” He added that while most millennials are accepting of transgender people, he wanted to be a “light” that set the record straight. “If you really want to bring this back to who’s at fault, I mean we gotta look a little bit inwardly,” he said. “I mean, we’ve tolerated immorality and we’re not reflecting light.” The Council on American-Islamic Relations also opposed Green’s nomination, citing an appearance before the Chattanooga Tea Party last fall in which Green said “we will not tolerate” teaching the “pillars of Islam” in textbooks. In that same event, Green responded to a man who said he was concerned about an armed insurrection by people who “don’t belong here, like Muslims in the United States” by saying he’d asked a “great question.” [...] Green’s withdrawal marks a new note in the White House’s turmoil in filling senior civilian positions in the Pentagon. He was selected after Trump’s first Army secretary nominee, Vincent Viola, withdrew from consideration in February. Viola, a former Army officer who went on to become a billionaire on Wall Street, cited the complications of getting through the Pentagon’s conflict-of-interest rules. A nominee for Navy secretary, Philip M. Bilden, also withdrew from consideration in February, facing similar difficulties as Viola. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/05/05/mark-green-withdraws-as-trumps-army-secretary-nominee-citing-false-and-misleading-attacks/ [with comments]
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Infowars 3-5 - Breaking: Plan To Overthrow Trump Discovered
Streamed live on May 5, 2017 by The Alex Jones Channel
includes, beginning at c. the 1:43:00 mark, the segment:
Anti-vaccine activists spark a state’s worst measles outbreak in decades May 5, 2017 The young mother started getting advice early on from friends in the close-knit Somali immigrant community here. Don’t let your children get the vaccine for measles, mumps and rubella — it causes autism, they said. Suaado Salah listened. And this spring, her 3-year-old boy and 18-month-old girl contracted measles in Minnesota’s largest outbreak [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/measles-outbreak-sickens-dozens-of-minnesota-somalis/2017/05/03/6b3be752-3029-11e7-a335-fa0ae1940305_story.html ] of the highly infectious and potentially deadly disease in nearly three decades. Her daughter, who had a rash, high fever and cough, was hospitalized for four nights and needed intravenous fluids and oxygen. “I thought: ‘I’m in America. I thought I’m in a safe place and my kids will never get sick in that disease,’ ” said Salah, 26, who has lived in Minnesota for more than a decade. Growing up in Somalia, she’d had measles as a child. A sister died of the disease at age 3. Salah no longer believes that the MMR vaccine triggers autism, a discredited theory [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/01/10/the-facts-about-vaccines-autism-and-robert-f-kennedy-jr-s-conspiracy-theory/ ] that spread rapidly through the local Somali community, fanned by meetings organized by anti-vaccine groups. The activists repeatedly invited Andrew Wakefield, the founder of the modern anti-vaccine movement [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/02/AR2010020203480.html ], to talk to worried parents. Immunization rates plummeted, and last month the first cases of measles appeared. Soon there was a full-blown outbreak, one of the starkest consequences of an intensifying anti-vaccine movement [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-energizes-the-anti-vaccine-movement-in-texas/2017/02/20/795bd3ae-ef08-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html ] in the United States and around the world that has gained traction in part by targeting specific communities. “It’s remarkable to come in and talk to a population that’s vulnerable and marginalized and who doesn’t necessarily have the capacity for advocacy for themselves, and to take advantage of that,” said Siman Nuurali, a Somali American clinician who coordinates the care of medically complex patients at Children’s Hospitals and Clinics of Minnesota. “It’s abhorrent. Although extensive research has disproved any relationship between vaccines and autism [ http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2275444 ], the fear has become entrenched in the community. “I don’t know if we will be able to dig out on our own,” Nuurali said. Anti-vaccine activists defend their position and their role, saying they merely provided information to parents. “The Somalis had decided themselves that they were particularly concerned,” Wakefield said last week. “I was responding to that.” He maintained that he bears no fault for what is happening within the community. “I don’t feel responsible at all,” he said. [...] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/anti-vaccine-activists-spark-a-states-worst-measles-outbreak-in-decades/2017/05/04/a1fac952-2f39-11e7-9dec-764dc781686f_story.html [with embedded video, and comments]
Flynn was warned by Trump transition officials about contacts with Russian ambassador Then-national security adviser Michael Flynn arrives to deliver a statement during the daily briefing at the White House on Feb. 1, 2017. May 5, 2017 Former national security adviser Michael Flynn was warned by senior members of then President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team about the risks of his contacts with the Russian ambassador weeks before the December call that led to Flynn’s forced resignation, current and former U.S. officials said. Flynn was told during a late November meeting that Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/moscows-man-in-washington-is-at-the-center-of-the-political-moment/2017/03/02/7e624234-ff6b-11e6-99b4-9e613afeb09f_story.html ]’s conversations were almost certainly being monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies, officials said, a caution that came a month before Flynn was recorded discussing U.S. sanctions against Russia with Kislyak, suggesting that the Trump administration would reevaluate the issue. Officials were so concerned that Flynn did not fully understand the motives of the Russian ambassador that the head of Trump’s national security council transition team asked Obama administration officials for a classified CIA profile of Kislyak, officials said. The document was delivered within days, officials said, but it is not clear that Flynn ever read it. The previously undisclosed sequence reveals the extent to which even some Trump insiders were troubled by the still-forming administration’s entanglements with Russia and enthusiasm for a friendly relationship with the Kremlin. The failed efforts to intervene with Flynn also cast harsh new light on a national security adviser who lasted just 24 days on the job before revelations about his discussions with Kislyak — and misleading accounts of them — forced him to resign. Robert Kelner, a lawyer for Flynn, declined to comment. Providing the Kislyak bio was seen by Obama officials as part of an effort “to make sure the new team had a full appreciation of the extent of the threat from Russia,” a former U.S. official said. The perceived need to impress this point upon Flynn added to the growing concerns among senior members of the Obama administration, who at the time were still coming to grips with the scale of Russian interference in the 2016 election and were worried that any punitive measures they imposed might be rescinded when Trump was sworn in. [...] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/flynn-was-warned-by-trump-transition-officials-about-contacts-with-russian-ambassador/2017/05/05/b552c832-3192-11e7-8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html [with comments]
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Trump transition raised flags about Flynn Russia contacts
By Julie Pace May 5, 2017
WASHINGTON (AP) — In late November, a member of Donald Trump’s transition team approached national security officials in the Obama White House with a curious request: Could the incoming team get a copy of the classified CIA profile on Sergey Kislyak, Russia’s ambassador to the United States?
Marshall Billingslea, a former Pentagon and NATO official, wanted the information for his boss, Michael Flynn, who had been tapped by Trump to serve as White House national security adviser. Billingslea knew Flynn would be speaking to Kislyak, according to two former Obama administration officials, and seemed concerned Flynn did not fully understand he was dealing with a man rumored to have ties to Russian intelligence agencies.
To the Obama White House, Billingslea’s concerns were startling: a member of Trump’s own team suggesting the incoming Trump administration might be in over its head in dealing with an adversary.
The request now stands out as a warning signal for Obama officials who would soon see Flynn’s contacts with the Russian spiral into a controversy that would cost him his job and lead to a series of shocking accusations hurled by Trump against his predecessor’s administration.
In the following weeks, the Obama White House would grow deeply distrustful of Trump’s dealing with the Kremlin and anxious about his team’s ties. The concern — compounded by surge of new intelligence, including evidence of multiple calls, texts and at least one in-person meeting between Flynn and Kislyak — would eventually grow so great Obama advisers delayed telling Trump’s team about plans to punish Russia for its election meddling. Obama officials worried the incoming administration might tip off Moscow, according to one Obama adviser.
The Trump White House declined to comment.
This account of the closing days of the Obama administration is based on interviews with 11 current and former U.S. officials, including seven with key roles in the Obama administration. The officials reveal an administration gripped by mounting anxiety over Russia’s election meddling and racing to grasp the Trump team’s possible involvement before exiting the White House. Most of the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive national security information.
The Obama White House’s role in the Russia controversy will come under fresh scrutiny Monday. Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and former deputy Attorney General Sally Yates are slated to testify before lawmakers on the Senate Judiciary Committee, one of three committees investigating Trump’s associates links to Moscow.
Trump has said he has no nefarious ties to Russia and isn’t aware of any involvement by his aides in Moscow’s interference in the election. He’s dismissed an FBI and congressional investigations into his campaign’s possible ties to the election meddling as a “hoax” driven by Democrats bitter over losing the White House.
Yates, an Obama administration official who carried over into the Trump administration, is expected to tell lawmakers that she expressed alarm to the Trump White House about Flynn’s contacts with the Russian ambassador. Trump fired Yates days later, after she told the Justice Department to not enforce the new president’s travel and immigration ban. Flynn was forced to resign three weeks later for misleading Vice President Mike Pence and other officials about the content of his discussions with Kislyak.
Yates’s warnings about Flynn in January capped weeks of building concern among top Obama officials. The president himself that month told one of his closest advisers that the FBI, which by then had been investigating Trump associates’ possible ties to Russia for about six months, seemed particularly focused on Flynn.
Obama aides described Flynn as notably dismissive of the threat Russia posed to the United States when discussing policy in transition meetings with outgoing national security adviser Susan Rice and other top officials.
Officials also found it curious that Billingslea only ever asked Obama’s National Security Council for one classified leadership profile to give to Flynn: the internal document on Kislyak.
The CIA compiles classified biographies of foreign officials, known as leadership profiles. The profiles include U.S. intelligence assessments about the officials, in addition to biographical information.
When reached by the AP, Billingslea refused to comment. Last month, Trump announced his intention to nominate Billingslea to serve as assistant secretary for terrorist financing at the Treasury Department.
Trump has accused Obama officials of illegally leaking classified information about Flynn’s contacts with Kislyak. He’s also contended, without evidence, that Rice asked for the names of Trump officials caught up in routine intelligence monitoring to be improperly revealed, a charge Rice has denied.
The distrust in the other camp was clear months earlier. In late December, as the White House prepared to levy sanctions and oust Russians living in the in the U.S. in retaliation for the hacks, Obama officials did not brief the Trump team on the decision until shortly before it was announced publicly. The timing was chosen in part because they feared the transition team might give Moscow lead time to clear information out of two compounds the U.S. was shuttering, one official said.
While it’s not inappropriate for someone in Flynn’s position to have contact with a diplomat, Obama officials said the frequency of his discussions raised enough red flags that aides discussed the possibility Trump was trying to establish a one-to-one line of communication — a so-called back channel — with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Obama aides say they never determined why Flynn was in close contact with the ambassador.
Even with the suspicion, the officials said they did not withhold information.
The outgoing White House also became concerned about the Trump team’s handling of classified information. After learning that highly sensitive documents from a secure room at the transition’s Washington headquarters were being copied and removed from the facility, Obama’s national security team decided to only allow the transition officials to view some information at the White House, including documents on the government’s contingency plans for crises.
Some White House advisers now privately concede that the administration moved too slowly during the election to publicly blame Russia for the hack and explore possible ties to the Trump campaign. Others say it was only after the election, once Obama ordered a comprehensive review of the election interference, that the full scope of Russia’s interference and potential Trump ties become clearer.
Associated Press writer Eileen Sullivan contributed to this report.
Macron's French presidential campaign emails leaked online
Emmanuel Macron, head of the political movement En Marche !, or Onwards !, and candidate for the 2017 presidential election, is pictured through a window of his hotel during a campaign visit in Rodez, France, May 5, 2017. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau
By Eric Auchard and Bate Felix May 5, 2017 | 8:08pm EDT
FRANKFURT/PARIS (Reuters) - Leading French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron's campaign said on Friday it had been the target of a "massive" computer hack that dumped its campaign emails online 1-1/2 days before voters choose between the centrist and his far-right rival Marine Le Pen.
Macron, who extended his lead in the polls over Le Pen on Friday, is seen as the frontrunner in an election billed as the most important in France in decades.
Some nine gigabytes of data were posted by a user called EMLEAKS to Pastebin, a document-sharing site that allows anonymous posting. It was not immediately clear who was responsible for posting the data or if any of it was genuine.
In a statement, Macron's political movement En Marche! (Onwards!) confirmed that it had been hacked.
"The En Marche! Movement has been the victim of a massive and co-ordinated hack this evening which has given rise to the diffusion on social media of various internal information," the statement said.
An interior ministry official declined to comment, citing French rules that forbid any commentary liable to influence an election, and which took effect at midnight on Friday (2200 GMT).
The French presidential election commission said in statement that it would hold a meeting later on Saturday after Macron's campaign informed it about the hack and publishing of the data.
It urged the media to be cautious about publishing details of the emails given that campaigning had ended, and publishing it could lead to criminal charges.
Comments about the email dump began to appear on Friday evening just hours before the official ban on campaigning began. The ban is due to stay in place until the last polling stations close on Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT).
Opinion polls show independent centrist Macron is set to beat National Front candidate Le Pen in Sunday's second round of voting, in what is seen to be France's most important election in decades. The latest surveys show him winning with about 62 percent of the vote.
Former economy minister Macron's team has complained in the past about attempts to hack its emails during a fraught campaign, blaming Russian interests in part for the cyber attacks.
On April 26, the team said it had been the target of a series of attempts to steal email credentials since January, but that the perpetrators had so far failed to compromise any campaign data.
In February, the Kremlin denied that it was behind any such attacks, even though Macron's camp renewed complaints against Russian media and a hackers' group operating in Ukraine.
In its statement on Friday, En Marche! said that the documents released online showed only the normal functionings of a presidential campaign, but that authentic documents had been mixed on social media with fake ones to sow "doubt and misinformation".
"The seriousness of this event is certain and we shall not tolerate that the vital interests of democracy be put at risk," it added.
The French presidential election campaign is not the first to be overshadowed by accusations of manipulation via computer hacking and cyber-attacks.
U.S. intelligence agencies said in January that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered hacking of the Democratic National Committee and the chairman of Hillary Clinton's Democratic campaign to influence the election on behalf of Donald Trump, her Republican rival who went on to win the U.S. presidency.
On Friday night as the #Macronleaks hashtag buzzed around social media, Florian Philippot, deputy leader of the National Front, asked on Twitter; "Will Macronleaks teach us something that investigative journalism has deliberately killed?"
Macron spokesman Sylvain Fort, in a response on Twitter, called Philippot's tweet "vile".
(Reporting by Eric Auchard in Frankfurt and Michel Rose and Bate Felix in Paris; Writing by Andrew Callus; Editing by Sandra Maler)
Campaigning has ended ahead of Sunday's vote Reuters
5 May 2017
The campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron says it has been the target of a "massive hacking attack" after a trove of documents was released online.
The campaign said that genuine files were mixed up with fake ones in order to confuse people.
It said that it was clear the hackers wanted to undermine Mr Macron ahead of Sunday's second round vote.
The centrist will face off against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.
The documents were leaked on a file sharing website late on Friday, as the official presidential campaigning period drew to a close.
Mr Macron's En Marche movement said internal campaign documents, including emails and financial data, had been taken in an "act of massive, co-ordinated hacking".
"The leaked files were obtained several weeks ago by hacking personal and professional email accounts of several officials of the movement," it said in a statement.
Earlier, separate security alerts in and around Paris marred the final day of campaigning.
A suspected radical Islamist possessing weapons and a pledge of allegiance to IS was arrested north of the capital.
And Greenpeace activists scaled the Eiffel Tower to unfurl a banner, sparking an emergency police meeting.
Polls had suggested a strong lead for Mr Macron in the presidential race.
The dark history at the heart of the French election
French presidential election candidate for the En Marche! (Onward) political movement, Emmanuel Macron (is cheered as he delivers a speech during an election campaign rally in Albi, France, May 5, 2017. (Frederic Scheiber/EPA)
By James McAuley May 6, 2017
PARIS - The French call it “the past that will not pass.”
This year’s election in France has proven that phrase — first coined by prominent French historian Henry Rousso — to be more than prescient. In subtle and not-so-subtle ways, France’s complicity in the Holocaust and, to a profound degree, its colonial crimes have been defining themes of the most contentious presidential campaign in recent memory. When voters go to the polls Sunday, they will choose between warring interpretations of France’s past as much as between different visions for its future.
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the two candidates in the final round of the vote, are distinct in many ways. Macron, a former investment banker and the darling of Parisian and academic elites, is a boyish acolyte of cosmopolitan Europe; Le Pen, a hard-line nationalist, is an advocate of economic protectionism and closed borders. But rarely are the two more opposed than when they talk about history, as they have done frequently throughout a long and bitter campaign.
For Le Pen — the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, a convicted Holocaust denier who repeatedly has dismissed the Nazi gas chambers as a “detail of history” — the past is nothing to be ashamed of. Last month, she remarked on national television that France bore no responsibility for an infamous Paris roundup during the Holocaust, when French authorities arrested some 13,000 Jews, soon deported to their deaths.
Approximately 76,000 Jews were deported from France to the Nazi concentration camps during World War II. Most never returned.
“If there were those responsible,” Le Pen said, “it was those who were in power at the time. This is not France.”
Versions of Holocaust denial and revisionism have clouded Le Pen’s National Front party throughout the 2017 campaign.
In early March, a party official in Nice was caught on camera saying that “there weren’t mass killings as it’s been said.”
In late April, Jean-François Jalkh, Le Pen’s appointed deputy of the National Front during the closing days of the campaign, was reported to have said — in an on-the-record interview in 2000 — that the Nazis never used the poison gas Zyklon B to exterminate millions of Jews and others.
“From a technical point of view it’s impossible,” Jalkh allegedly said in that interview, although since then he has claimed he can’t remember saying so and sued the Le Monde newspaper for presenting him as a Holocaust denier.
Macron, by contrast, has chosen — at significant political risk — to confront head-on other dark chapters of France’s past, especially colonialism.
Some say the tactic stems from his early days as an assistant to the late French intellectual Paul Ricoeur, whose work often examined the intersections of history and memory.
In one of Macron’s most controversial decisions on the campaign trial, he went in February to Algeria, which France had annexed for 132 years, and called on the French state to apologize formally for its crimes as a colonial power, especially in the bloody war for Algerian independence between 1954 and 1962.
France’s history in that war, Macron said in an interview days later, represented “crimes and acts of barbarism” that today deserve to be labeled “crimes against humanity.”
For months, Le Pen has harped on Macron for those three words, accusing him once again in a televised debate Wednesday of “insulting” the French people.
In a high-profile case, her father, in the 2002 presidential campaign, was accused of torture during the Algerian War — charges that the elder Le Pen vehemently disputes.
Benjamin Stora, France’s preeminent expert on colonial Algerian history and a founding member of Paris’s National Museum of the History of Immigration, said in an interview that the outcry over Macron’s declaration has highlighted the ways in which, at least in this election, the past remains present.
“For many people, colonialism has always been a distant abstraction, a peripheral problem,” he said.
“But no one today who is honest can see it that way anymore. The question of immigration is a central question in our society and in many ways, the question.”
So many of the problems in French society today, Stora said, stem from the aftermath of France’s colonial history — and the French state’s struggles to integrate immigrants from across the once-expansive French empire.
“If you don’t know the history of Algeria, you cannot understand France in 2017,” he said.
This year’s election has widely been regarded as historic, with both principal candidates representing parties outside the center-left and center-right that have governed the country since 1958.
Many even have pondered the degree to which this election represents a departure from the statist model envisioned by Charles de Gaulle, with a president as a powerful executive who embodies the dignity of the nation.
For some, however, the prospect of a National Front victory at the presidential level is the opposite of a new development.
“When you place them within the framework of the continuity of French history, you cannot find one single new element brought by the Le Pen family and their movement,” Zeev Sternhell, a prominent historian of French fascism, said in an interview.
“This is classic hard-right nationalism with the usual xenophobia, the hatred of the ‘other’ and the cult of the people against the elite.”
That ideology, Sternhell added, has been a constant in French history since 1789, manifesting throughout the 19th century.
It appeared, Sternhell said, in episodes such as the “Dreyfus affair,” when a Jewish military captain was wrongly accused of treason, and later during the Vichy government in World War II, when a long-dormant far right capitalized on military defeat to take power.
A Le Pen victory in 2017, Sternhell said, “would be an anti-Enlightenment and anti-liberal revolution.”
For Rousso, who recently was detained in the United States during President Trump’s “travel ban,” one of the many issues at stake in France’s election is the politics of memory — especially complicated in a diverse society that blends a multitude of immigrant experiences.
“A principal challenge for the next president of the republic will be to try and find a way to reconcile different memories,” he said. “And more importantly, divided memories.”
In the meantime, he said, the past is here to stay.
Presidential frontrunner hacked on eve of French election
All In with Chris Hayes 5/5/17
In an echo of the U.S. presidential election, the campaign of centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron says it was the target of a ‘massive and coordinated’ hacking. Duration: 5:41
Chris Hayes spars with Republican Rep. Michael Burgess about what Trump and the GOP promised -- which was a lot! -- versus what the House bill delivers. Duration: 7:48
Late cyber attack hits French presidential candidate Macron
The Rachel Maddow Show 5/5/17
Richard Engel, NBC News chief foreign correspondent, talks with Rachel Maddow about a last minute cyber attack on French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron by what are believed to be Russian-backed attackers. Duration: 18:05
Trump camp warned Flynn about Russia contacts, Obama team wary
The Rachel Maddow Show 5/5/17
Rachel Maddow relays late news reports that the Trump transition team warned Mike Flynn about his contacts with Russians, and the Obama team was so wary of the Trump camp's Russia ties that according to NBC News they gave only hours notice before retaliating for the hacks of the 2016 election. Duration: 6:14
Trump derelict in filling key military defense roles
The Rachel Maddow Show 5/5/17
Rachel Maddow report on the dearth of nominations by the Trump administration for key military defense positions and the ridiculous stumbles by those candidates he has nominated, a significant failure given current U.S. military entanglements. Duration: 8:13
Democrats on offense over unpopular Republican health care bill
The Rachel Maddow Show 5/5/17
Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, (D, NY), talks with Rachel Maddow about the pressure he is putting on GOP Rep. John Faso who represents a neighboring district and broke his promise to constituents with his vote for the Republicans health care bill. Duration: 5:15
Massive hack in French election, as US investigation heats up
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell 5/5/17
The leading French presidential candidate's campaign is the target of a massive hacking on the eve of the vote. Plus, new revelations about Michael Flynn's Russia contacts as Sally Yates prepares to testify. Shawn Henry, David Corn & Matea Gold join Ari Melber. Duration: 12:02
Trump resistance sees record fundraising after AHCA vote
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell 5/5/17
Progressive groups say they've seen a massive spike in donations to help unseat vulnerable Republicans since the House voted to pass the AHCA and repeal Obamacare. David Mir and Ezra Levin join Ari Melber to discuss 2018 momentum. Duration: 6:08
Reports: Trump team asked Obama admin. for help because of Flynn
The 11th Hour with Brian Williams 5/5/17
New reports say the Trump Transition team was so worried about Michael Flynn's Russian contacts, they asked for an assist from the Obama administration. Our political panel reacts. Duration: 12:14
Senate committee wants answers from Trump associates
The 11th Hour with Brian Williams 5/5/17
Ahead of Capitol Hill testimony from fmr. acting Atty. General Sally Yates, the Senate Intelligence Committee is asking for answers on Russia from Trump associates. Our political panel reacts. Duration: 6:44
Hack hits frontrunner challenging Putin-backed French candidate
The 11th Hour with Brian Williams 5/5/17
Emmanuel Macron, the centrist frontrunner challenging far-right Putin-backed candidate Marine Le Pen is hacked just hours before the vote, but it's unclear who was behind the hack. Duration: 7:55
John Kasich: Redefining Republican | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Published on May 5, 2017 by Real Time with Bill Maher
Bill sits down with Ohio Governor and "Two Paths: America Divided or United" author John Kasich for a discussion about healthcare and his political future.
America's favorite astrophysicist takes a look at the somewhat-questionable science behind big summer movies like 'Guardians of the Galaxy 2" and "Alien: Covenant.'
Published on May 6, 2017 by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
President Trump appointed Mike Pence to head the National Space Council. That brings us to the first ever installment of [cue echo effect] 'Pence in Space.'
Published on May 6, 2017 by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Cases upon cases of beer were rolled into the Capitol following the House's passing of the healthcare bill. But the regrettable choices happened earlier on in the day.
Joy Reid and her panel discuss what could be the worst social and political move – alienating millions – by House Republicans in recent history. Duration: 17:14
Joy Reid and her panel[, (obviously) including Malcolm Nance,] discuss the numerous red flags regarding Mike Flynn that may have been ignored by the Trump team, but which Flynn himself should have steered clear of. Duration: 9:53
Former congressman Tom Perriello joins Joy Reid on his bid to become governor of Virginia, as anger over the AHCA could make state legislatures and governorships go Democratic. Duration: 5:48
Reading the first daughter’s new book has been described as like ‘eating scented cotton balls’ – but Joy Reid and her panel discuss the bigger problem: Ivanka Trump peddling ironic hypocrisies in ‘Women Who Work.’ Duration: 12:04
Can they save a divided party? Joy Reid and her panel get into a heated debate over Barack Obama’s speaking fees, and Hillary Clinton coming out of the woods to start a Super PAC. Duration: 12:33
A panel of comedians joins Joy Reid in support of Stephen Colbert, reminding us that truth-telling comics are necessary to prevent society from normalizing Donald Trump. Duration: 8:22
In a Beijing ballroom, Kushner family flogs $500,000 ‘investor visa’ to wealthy Chinese
The event was hosted by the Chinese company Qiaowai, which connects U.S. companies with Chinese investors. (Emily Rauhala/The Washington Post)
The reception desk at the Ritz-Carlton. (Emily Rauhala/The Washington Post)
By Emily Rauhala May 6, 2017
BEIJING - The Kushner family came to the United States as refugees, worked hard and made it big — and if you invest in Kushner properties, so can you.
That was the message delivered Saturday by White House senior adviser Jared Kushner’s sister to a ballroom full of wealthy Chinese investors, renewing questions about the Kushner family’s business ties to China.
Over several hours of slide shows and presentations, representatives from the Kushner family business urged Chinese citizens gathered at the Ritz-Carlton hotel to consider investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in a New Jersey real estate project to secure what’s known as an investor visa.
But President Trump’s vow to crack down on immigration, as well as criticism from members of Congress, has led to questions about the future of a program known here as the “golden visa.”
In the ballroom of the Ritz-Carlton on Saturday, Chinese investors were advised to invest sooner rather than later in case the rules change. “Invest early, and you will invest under the old rules,” one speaker said.
The woman identified as “Jared’s sister” was believed to be Nicole Kushner, who is involved in the family business, not Dara Kushner, who generally stays out of the spotlight. But the woman’s face was not clearly visible from the back of the ballroom, where reporters were told to remain.
Saturday’s event in Beijing was hosted by the Chinese company Qiaowai, which connects U.S. companies with Chinese investors. The tagline on a brochure for the event: “Invest $500,000 and immigrate to the United States.”
Qiaowai is working with Kushner to secure funding for Kushner 1, a real estate project in New Jersey. Promotional materials tout the buildings’ proximity to Manhattan and note that the project will create more than 6,000 jobs.
“This project has stable funding, creates sufficient jobs and guarantees the safety of investors’ money,” one description reads.
Although there was no visible reference to Trump, the materials noted the Kushner family’s “celebrity” status. Wang Yun, a Chinese investor who attended the event, said the Kushner family’s ties to Trump, via son-in-law Jared, were a part of the project’s appeal — but also a source of concern.
“Even though this is the project of the son-in-law’s family, of course it is still affiliated,” Wang.
Wang reasoned that the link to Trump would be a boon if the presidency goes well but could be disastrous if it does not: “We heard that there are rumors that he is the most likely to be impeached president in American history. That’s why I doubt this project.”
Many of the people who attended the event declined to be interviewed, citing privacy concerns, or were blocked by organizers from speaking to the news media.
Though the event was publicly advertised in Beijing, the hosts were exceptionally anxious about the presence of reporters.
Journalists were initially seated at the back of the ballroom, but as the presentations got underway, a public-relations representative asked The Washington Post to leave, saying the presence of foreign reporters threatened the “stability” of the event.
At one point, organizers grabbed a reporter’s phone and backpack to try to force that person to leave. Later, as investors started leaving the ballroom, organizers physically surrounded attendees to stop them from giving interviews.
Asked why reporters were asked to leave, a public-relations representative, who declined to identify herself, said simply, “This is not the story we want.”
AP FACT CHECK: Squishy claims follow health care bill President Donald Trump, accompanied by House GOP members, speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, Thursday, May 4, 2017, after the House pushed through a health care bill. May 07, 2017 WASHINGTON (AP) - They promised you a rose garden, from the Rose Garden. This past week, President Donald Trump and Republicans legislators celebrated passage of a House bill seeking to replace the Affordable Care Act. At a White House event, they heaped praise on their effort and brushed off worries that health coverage could be imperiled for many people if the Senate is persuaded to go along with the legislation. There were other bold claims coming from the Rose Garden, too, about the budget deal that keeps the government running through September, as well as questionable statements by Trump on other fronts. A sampling: [...] https://www.apnews.com/0abd954abafe47849ce54d2e0ffd0d09/AP-FACT-CHECK:-Squishy-claims-follow-health-care-bill
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GOP chairman tells agencies what to release in FOIA requests The House Financial Services Committee’s ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters D-Calif., left, with committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, May 2, 2017, during the committee’s hearing on overhauling the nation’s financial rules. May 06, 2017 WASHINGTON (AP) - A House Republican chairman has told a dozen government agencies to exclude communications with his committee from requests made by news organizations, advocacy groups and others through the Freedom of Information Act. In a series of letters, Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas said communications the agencies had with members of his panel and committee staff should not be released, arguing that it often includes sensitive and confidential information. “All such documents and communications constitute congressional records not ‘agency records’ for purposes of the Freedom of Information Act, and remain subject to congressional control even when in the physical possession of the” agency, Hensarling wrote in one April 3 letter to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Records and material from the executive branch are subject to requests under the 1967 Freedom of Information Act. Congress, which wrote the law, has exempted itself. Hensarling’s letter to the Treasury Department was first reported by BuzzFeed. The Associated Press obtained additional letters that the Republican lawmaker sent to other agencies within the jurisdiction of his Financial Services Committee. Among the agencies were the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The committee’s top Democrat, Rep. Maxine Waters of California, said Hensarling for years has made what she described as “intrusive and aggressive demands of agencies,” citing his request of more than 150,000 pages of documents from the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. “Anytime he’s called on it, he says that Congress has the right to conduct oversight. And while Congress does have that right, it is the height of hypocrisy for him to take such extraordinary measures to shield himself from the oversight of the American public,” Waters said. “People should ask themselves: What is he trying to hide?” The advocacy group Public Citizen said Hensarling’s letter violates the spirit of the open records law though the legal ramifications are murkier. “What’s clear is that it’s an outrageous move,” said Robert Weissman, president of Public Citizen. The Financial Services Committee has jurisdiction over issues relating to banking, insurance, federal monetary policy, housing and international finance. On Thursday, it passed legislation rolling back much of the Dodd-Frank laws created under President Barack Obama in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Weissman said that the committee’s taking on such legislation is one reason to be hypersensitive to secrecy. “We know these are not technocratic policy matters removed from broad public interest or the influence of the most powerful industry sector in America,” Weissman said. [...] https://www.apnews.com/298c89fd4f3045fe9ea3f5c316d264f2/GOP-chairman-tells-agencies-what-to-release-in-FOIA-requests [the continuation slightly updated/article republished at https://www.apnews.com/4e149a07359f46bf9921ad0cf3b64794/GOP-chairman-warns-agencies-about-requests-for-records ]
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Amid Putin ‘bromance,’ Steven Seagal banned from Ukraine as national security threat Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Steven Seagal shake hands after visiting an oceanarium built on Russky Island, in the Russian Far East port of Vladivostok, on Sept. 4, 2015. May 6, 2017 [...] Though the Ukrainian security letter does not outline specific statements that got the actor banned, Seagal once participated in a pro-Putin motorcycle rally in Crimea, a disputed peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown in a revolution. In an interview then, Seagal defended Russia's annexation of Crimea, saying that Putin's “desire to protect the Russian-speaking people of Crimea, his assets, and the Russian Black Sea military base in Sevastopol … is very reasonable,” the Moscow Times reported [ https://themoscowtimes.com/news/movie-star-seagal-backs-russias-actions-in-crimea-33340 ]. Seagal's Crimea comments made him persona non grata in another country, Estonia, where organizers of a 2014 music festival there canceled his set after backlash from the Estonian public. “We hope that Estonian public will primarily view Seagal as an actor and musician,” said Raul Ukareda, program director for the festival, according to the Hollywood Reporter [ http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/steven-seagals-set-at-estonian-719909 ]. “But, as it turned out, everyone sees him only as a politician and Putin loyalist.” During the Obama administration, Seagal often praised the Kremlin while criticizing U.S. foreign policy. In a 2013 interview with the Russian news channel RT [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOvY-MesvNg ], Seagal called Putin “one of the greatest world leaders, if not the greatest world leader alive today.” The feeling seemed mutual. Putin would later propose that Seagal become an honorary Russian envoy [ https://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/putins-action-hero-how-steven-seagal-became-the-kremlins-unl ] to the United States. In November, Putin granted Russian citizenship to Seagal, presenting him with a Russian passport in a formal ceremony. It was “an ending fit for Hollywood,” The Washington Post's Andrew Roth reported then [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/25/vladimir-putin-just-made-it-official-with-actor-steven-seagals-russian-passport/ ], one that consummated “an odd-couple bromance that has blossomed despite years of dark relations between the two men's respective countries.” Steven Seagal @sseagalofficial Congratulations @realDonaldTrump for your stunning victory over your opponent! Looking forward to making AMERICA great again! 1:53 AM - 9 Nov 2016 [ https://twitter.com/sseagalofficial/status/796259507588300800 (with comments)] Seagal, who openly supported Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential race, has appeared in numerous direct-to-video films since breaking out as an action star in the 1990s. He also starred in his own reality show on the Reelz Network, “Steven Seagal: Lawman,” in which showed him teaming up with law enforcement organizations in Louisiana and Arizona. “I think our biggest problem is the open border,” Seagal told ABC15 News in a 2014 interview about the Arizona season of the show. “I think this is a tremendous oversight by our current administration. As Ronald Reagan once said, if we don't have security on our borders, we don't have a country.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/06/amid-putin-bromance-steven-seagal-banned-from-ukraine-as-national-security-threat/ [with embedded video "Steven Seagal meets with 'Europe's last dictator,' eats a carrot", and comments]
Joe Scarborough (Alex Moffat) and Mika Brzezinski (Kate McKinnon) speak with John Miller (Alec Baldwin), a spokesman for President Donald Trump, about the AHCA.
Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough are engaged MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski at an event in New York. MSNBC confirmed May 4 that the two are engaged. May 4, 2017 Finally, the whispering can stop: “Morning Joe” co-hosts Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough are engaged, an MSNBC spokeswoman confirmed on Thursday. The public acknowledgement comes after years of speculation about the pair, who from behind the desk of their morning-news show projected a banter-filled relationship that was more what you’d expect from a married couple keeping things spicy than colleagues who happened to share a teleprompter. [...] Not everyone who knew them was discreet: President Donald Trump, who critics accused the TV talkers of cozying up to during the GOP primary, in August tweeted a signature slam: “Some day, when things calm down, I’ll tell the real story of @JoeNBC and his very insecure long-time girlfriend, @morningmika,” the then-candidate wrote. “Two clowns!” [...] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/reliable-source/wp/2017/05/04/mika-brzezinski-and-joe-scarborough-are-engaged/ [with embedded video, and comments]
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