I have a lot of experience in the probabilistic models. I have taught it in several universities for MANY years.
You can maximize your chance of success when you are in a static model/situation. The maximization techniques of static models won't fit properly to a dynamic situation when the chance of success (OWCP stock price going up in this case) is much higher in the future than the chance of price going down.
For that reason, I never wait for a very small chance that price may go to 0.80 or even the insane idea of 0.60 to miss a great chance of any announcements when I know it will be only a matter of time for price to go much higher.
LOL...I got that "2PM" from you when once you said the price will go down to 0.60 by 2PM! :)