Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/01 2017 EOD
Everything points to more near-term weakness. One possible positive is that rate of volume rise is slowing, offering hope that we are nearing a bottoming, but I don't think it's here yet.
The was a PR for Two C65s for N. Africa Flare Reduction
Today was an open high and fall all day until the manipulated last hour, on the usual crappy volume, produced the common, but weak, rise and even had a close 2.38% above the majority, and last, 15:59 trades.
Nothing like being too obvious.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 9:15 was 8K:7K $0.7299/$0.7990 and just before open was 8K:42 $0.7299/$0.7380 (offers backed by presented 7K $0.7990).
09:30-10:12 opened the day with a 2,816 buy for $0.7399 & $7550 x 1, x 150, $7399 x 200, $0.7300 x 200. B/a just after open was 3.6K:1.5K $0.73/$0.7551. Then came 9:31's 300 $0.73, 9:32's 100 $0.73, 9:32's b/a 5K:1.4K $0.73/5, 9:33's 11.5K $0.73 (400)/$0.75 (1.5K)/$0.73/$0.75 (2.8K)/$0.749 (4K)/$0.75 (1.7K)/$0.73 (600), 9:34's 2.3K $0.73, 9:35's 400 $0.73, 9:36's 300 $0.73, 9:37's 400 $0.73, 9:38's 1.1K $0.7300/50/90/50/00, 9:39's b/a 6.3K:551 $0.73/5 (offers falling), 9:39's 1.9K $0.74 (1.3K)/3, 9:40's 400 $0.73, 9:41's 300 $0.73, 9:42's 400 $0.7300/1, 9:42's b/a 6K:1.2K $0.73/$0.7449 (bids rising), 9:43's 200 $0.7301, 9:44's 300 $0.7301, 9:45's 200 $0.7301, 9:46's 300 $0.7301, 9:47's 400 $0.7301, 9:48's b/a 400:1.1K $0.7301/$0.7449, 9:48's 200 $0.7301, 9:49's 300 $0.7301/0, 9:50's b/a 5.5K:2.2K $0.73/$0.7449, 9:50's 1.3K $0.73, 9:51's 300 $0.73, 9:52's 1.6K $0.73 (300)/$0.7448 (1K)/$0.73, 9:53's 400 $0.73, 9:54's b/a 3K:1.3K $0.73/$0.7449, 9:54's 200 $0.73, 9:55's 3.1K $0.73 (1.8K)/1 (1K)/0, 9:56's 300 $0.73, 9:57's 400 $0.73, 9:58's b/a 1K:1.2K $0.73/$0.7449, 9:58's 300 $0.73, 9:59's 900 $0.73/$0.7299 (100), 10:01's 200 $0.7300, 10:02's 100 $0.73, 10:03's b/a 1.2K:1.2K $0.73/$0.7449, 10:03's 100 $0.73, 10:05's 1.4K $0.73, 10:06's b/a 900:1.2K $0.73/$0.7449, 10:06's 400 $0.73, 10:07's 200 $0.73, 10:08's 300 $0.73, 10:09's 300 $0.73, 10:10's 200 $0.73, 10:10's b/a 100:1.2K $0.73/$0.7449, 10:11's 300 $0.73, 10:12's b/a 500:1.2K $0.73/$0.7449, and the period ended on 10:12's 300 $0.73.
10:13-11:17 began an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.7214/$0.7374, with a lot of 100-200 share minutes pecking the bid with falling range, on 10:13's 200 $0.73/$0.7299. B/a at 10:14 was 7.9K:1.2K $0.7299/$0.7449. Volume became low/medium at 10:30. B/a at 10:33 was 700:4.5k $0.7300/66. Volume was interrupted by 10:34's 13.9K $0.7300 (10.2K)/32 (200)/$0.7299 (3.4K) and 10:35's 3.7K $0.7295/$0.73 (1K)/$0.7214/$0.7305 (2.2K). B/a at 10:39 was 100:2.5K $0.7201/34. 10:40's 6.9K hit $0.7205/1/0 (6.6K). B/a at 10:44 was 18.5K:1.4K $0.7200/12 (west coasties arrive?), 10:47 100:1K $0.7250/$0.7374. Volume was interrupted by 10:46's 4.3K $0.7205/4/$0.7320/$0.7204. B/a at 10:54 was 18.4K:1K $0.72/$0.7374. Volume was interrupted by 11:04's 30K $0.72. B/a at 11:04 was 160:1.2K $0.7110/97. 11:06's 100 hit $0.7150/2 and 11:09's 206 hit$0.711. B/a at 11:10 was 160:300 $0.7110/98. The period ended on 11:17's 208 200 $0.$0.7110.
11:18-12:41 stepped up and began mostly very low-volume $0.7194/$0.7349 (mostly $0.7200 through 11:38), on 11:18's 1.6K $0.7152/16/46/94/68. B/a at 11:25 was 500:700 $0.7189/$0.7374, 11:26 16.8K:700 $0.7200/$0.7374. Volume was interrupted by 11:33's 13.3K (incl 13K blk) $0.72. B/a at 11:34 was 3.1K:1.3K $0.72/$0.7349. Price was interrupted by 11:39-40's 4k $0.7200/75/$0.7349/48/49/48/75/49, $0.7298 (2K)/00. B/a at 11:43 was 1.4K:600 $0.72/$0.7349, 11:47 800:600 $0.72/$0.7349. Lows began rising at 11:49. B/a at 11:53 was 4.8K:6.6K $0.7250/$0.7348. Volume went extremely low/no-volume at 11:58. B/a at 12:04 was 71:500 $0.7250/$0.7348 (bids backed by presented 400 $0.7245), 12:11 400:486 $0.7207/$0.7348, 12:32 203:477 $0.72/$0.7348. The period ended on 12:41's 1.9K $0.72.
12:42-13:17 began an extremely low/no-volume small and slow decline from 12:42's's 200 $0.7195. 12:45's 300 hit $0.7345/$0.7150 (200). B/a at 12:47 was 900:472 $0.7150/$0.7348, 13:02 104:572 $0.7150/$0.7348. 13:14's 100 hit $0.713. B/a at 13:17 was 1.1K:200 $0.7140/$0.7330. The period ended on 13:17's 100 $0.713.
13:18-14:34 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7150/$0.7327, with falling highs, on 13:18's 202 $0.715. B/a at 13:32 was 1.1K:400 $0.7150/$0.7330, 13:47 1.2K:400 $0.7150/$0.7330, 14:02 5.2K:400 $0.7150/$0.7330, 14:17 3.6K:600 $0.7150/$0.7330, 14:31 1.3K:600 $0.7150/$0.7330. The period ended on 14:34's 1K $0.715.
14:35-15:07 began an extremely low/no-volume decline from 14:35's 502 $0.7145/30 (100). B/a at 14:37 was 900:600 $0.7120/$0.7330. Volume was interrupted, and the low was lowered, by 14:37's 7.7K $0.7120/$0.72 (7K)/$0.7120. 14:45's 100 hit $0.71. B/a at 14:49 was 41.6K:800 $0.71/$0.7330, 15:02 37.9K:800 $0.71/$0.7330. The period ended on 15:07's 504 $0.71.
15:08-16:00 began an extremely low/no-volume slow rise from 15:08's 402 $0.7100/30. 15:13's 3.4K hit $0.7130/$0.72. B/A at 15:17 was 6K:800 $0.7130/$0.7330. 15:27's 504 hit $0.7130/$0.73. B/a at 15:32 was 4.8K:800 $0.7130/$0.7330. 15:36 commenced heavy hitting the bid of $0.7150, driving bid to $0.7130 and it hit that heavy too. B/a at 15:39 4.7K:593 $0.7130/$0.7330, 15:43 6.2K:693 $0.7130/$0.7330, 15:45 6.3K:1.3K $0.7130/$0.73. The last few minutes switched to low/high volume and ended the period and day on 15:59's 9.3K $0.7130/$0.7250 (2.5K)/$0.7130 and 16:00's 136 $0.73, 2.38% up from all but 2.5K of the 15:59 trades.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 68,858, 22.58% of day's volume, with a $0.7214 VWAP. For the volume, the count seems just a little low, along with the percentage of the day's volume. The VWAP is below, marginally, the day's VWAP of $0.7224. I have no idea who the buyers might be today, but I have a strong suspicion that DJ was using the ATM today because, IIRC, the price today was out of the money for the warrants. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Why do I believe the ATM was in use? well, the behavior didn't look like it did when I though the warrant holders were here. The intra-day behavior was such that it made me think the seller didn't care about price. That should be the case only if the shares are free and the only one who has free shares is one with access to the company treasury of not issued shares.
There were also several occasions where the bid quantity was huge while the offer quantity was small as if someone was trying to hold price up. It didn't help for long as far as I could tell though. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:12 37666 $0.7299 $0.7550 $27,759.39 $0.7370 12.35% 37.16%
11:17 83895 $0.7110 $0.7374 $60,679.05 $0.7233 27.51% 30.78% Incl 10:34 $0.7300 9,700 10:40 $0.7200 6,000
11:04 $0.7200 5,458 9,200 10,000
12:41 64319 $0.7116 $0.7349 $46,473.04 $0.7225 21.09% 23.97% Incl 11:33 $0.7200 13,000
13:17 18411 $0.7130 $0.7348 $13,273.05 $0.7209 6.04% 24.87% Incl 12:51 $0.7150 5,500 13:11 $0.7277 6,000
14:34 21436 $0.7150 $0.7327 $15,338.91 $0.7156 7.03% 22.44% Incl 13:36 $0.7151 4,000
15:07 18003 $0.7100 $0.7200 $12,861.49 $0.7144 5.90% 20.75%
16:00 41716 $0.7100 $0.7300 $29,816.85 $0.7148 13.68% 18.45%
Yesterday I said { I wonder if warrant holders were back. I don't see quite the same convincing behavior as I did before though. MMs making money by naked shorting and then covering is a possibility. When they see weakness and no strong buying pressure that's one thing they can do to make some money. Always possible shorters, who also respond to perceived weakness, shorted into the market. Both of theses latter scenarios would be supportable by the data. }
Today suggests the other possibility, DJ at the ATM, as the VWAP and buy percentage movements were pretty well connected today and both made a long, fairly consistent slide lower today. You can see what I meant about the seller apparently not caring about price? There was unrelenting selling, indicated by the buy percentage behavior, below the b/a mid-point and later in the day the VWAPs migrated closer to the period lows.
On the traditional TA front, movements were __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.39% -1.53% -0.66% 0.00% 18.51%
Prior -2.82% -5.13% -2.56% -3.95% 185.84%
Although the close was flat, keep in mind that closing trade was 2.38% up from all but 2.5K of the 15:59 trades. With volume continuing to rise, albeit at a reduced pace, continued price weakening wouldn't be a surprise.
On my minimal chart, yesterday trade range penetrated the medium-term rising support (rising orange line) and came back up to eventually close right on the line. Today it did the same but, as mentioned above, did so only because of the closing trade being up 2.38% from the prior range. For that reason I assess the close as manipulated and view the results as if it was a close below the line. This means that I think we actually have a break down and expect it will confirm tomorrow.
This means we should be looking to see the $0.70 price support (horizontal red line) challenged too. Having said that, if today was a result of ATM use and that doesn't occur tomorrow, we could see price range hold around where it is now. This is also suggested by the reducing rate of trade volume increase.
Any near-term upside will have to get through the new short-term descending resistance (descending orange line). Possibly worse is that the short-term trend the line represents will be applying downward pressure, ATM or not I think, and I strongly suspect we'll immediately challenge the $0.70 support.
We continue "pushing" the lower experimental 13-period Bollinger band limit again, not a good sign. Trading range was again completely below the falling mid-point.
The fast EMA continues below the slow EMA and continues to decline, as did the slow EMA. Now the gap is $0.0229 (was $0.0197) below it.
I finished this section yesterday with { Possibly obviating the need for the above considerations is the possible twice-weekly PRs. It's possible DJ has something really big up his sleeve that could push the share price dramatically upward. However, even if it's a significant item you can look at the chart's recently [sic] behavior and see that the PRs have had a declining effect, both in terms of amount of gain and duration. In fact it now looks like the old behavior has returned - positive PR equals lower share price. }
Today demonstrated the truth of that - a positive PR led to lower price. Trying to connect unseen and seen dots, this could be an effect of use of the ATM.
Supposition by me: DJ issues a PR expecting a price rise and sells into the market regardless. As with the number of years that passed without the need for cost cutting being recognized, it appears he is slow to recognize what's happening here, or maybe does not care because keeping his $600K salary coming is more important to him.
Calculating the shares outstanding increase at the next report may confirm the behavior even if not the reason.
On my one-year chart trading range was again completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling and the 10-day crossed below the 50-day SMA.
As before, we are in a behavioral pattern that makes projection of coming SMA behavior seem useless.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch were almost a repeat of the prior day. We again had, but for MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic, weakening in every oscillator I watch. Those two rose and MFI moved further from oversold. Again, every one was still below neutral. Williams %R continued in oversold condition as full stochastic continued to rise further above oversold.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (which had been rising), and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and Williams %R and RSI was flat. Everything is below neutral, MFI and Williams %R are in oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7176 and $0.8181 ($0.7204 and $0.8306 yesterday), flipped again going to converging this time, with a falling mid-point as the both limits declined, the upper faster than the lower.
All in, everything continues to offer no positive indications and present many negative indications, along with a still-rising volume. This latter item had a reduced rate of rise, offering a hope that the fall is nearing an end. Not yet I think.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but the only good was that the short percentage went to the middle of my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is down in the crapper again.
The spread expanded and again was produced by a bad intra-day behavior, this time worse than yesterday's - in aggregate open high and just walk downward all day, but for the manipulated extremely low/no-volume and weak rise in the last hour and closing buy already addressed above.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held steady for the second consecutive day at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 03/27 is -$0.0401, -5.27%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.1888%, -0.1311%, 0.1088%, 0.0842%, -0.2035%, -0.1687%, -0.0279%, 0.1106%, 0.3283%, and 0.2923%.
All in, only the short percentage offers any suggestion of relief from this down leg and it is not enough. If you look back over the short percentages you can see the recent reasonable ranges didn't produce any relief either. They are only one indicating component and insufficient in isolation to suggest anything positive or negative.
I interpret everything here as still suggesting more near-term weakness.
Bill
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