Replies to post #210858 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: JNJ/ACHN's 6-week HCV regimen

…the proportion of remaining US HCV patients…in…"easy" bucket (non-cirrhotic, non-GT3)? I also assume that these are also the least likely to have already been diagnosed.

Among US individuals with HCV, the proportion in the easy-to-treat (non-cirrhotic, non-GT3) bucket is probably about 75%. However, among US individuals with diagnosed HCV, the proportion in the easy-to-treat bucket is lower for two reasons: 1) non-cirrhotic patients have a lower chance of having been diagnosed (as you noted); and 2) a smaller proportion of GT3 patients, compared to other genotypes, has already been treated.

Partially offsetting item #1 is that patients already treated are more likely to be cirrhotic than the proportion of cirrhotic patients in the overall diagnosed pool.

All told, my guess for the number you’re seeking is 60%. However, the more pertinent number may be one that puts advanced fibrosis in the same bucket as cirrhosis, as 'dangerM' is suggesting (#msg-130800480, #msg-130800713), in which case the percentage of diagnosed patients in the easy bucket is considerably lower.