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trade2much

09/02/06 1:19 PM

#2904 RE: Howardhaftel #2903

Howard: the risk here and for other "Exploration" companies is: will they find oil, and how much it could be worth.?

Once they have found oil (which is what you say you are looking for stocks which have it already) it is a little late, just close the barn door at that point. Most traders/investors here are speculating and betting that this could turn out well for them, however if they want "Proven" reserves then you buy a stock already pumping oil or gas, as defined by the SEC filings definitions.

Your definition is for "proven reserves" not companies in process of exploring and developing reserves.

I guess a very little bit of DD would tell you that, too bad you have such a distaste for it.
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trade2much

09/02/06 1:31 PM

#2906 RE: Howardhaftel #2903

Howard perhaps I misread your post, you said the risk is whether they do or don't find oil.

I agree partially, but the risk is muchhhhh muccch more than that imho . They could find oil and have crummy management, or they could find it and have great management. They can have accretive or dilutive acquisitions and they could buy with $ or shares. It is still a very mixed bag.

So the best most of us can do is to use the Sec filings as a valuable source of info, and gather all other info we can. It would be great for instance to meet the managment, however I think it is safe to say most of us never will.

In any case detailed DD is a much better basis to buy on than a total vacuum of knowledge, but it is not a guarantee of success. I will grant that DD is not perfect most times so you have to inject your investing experience and still keep your fingers crossed, but it is better than just keeping your fingers crossed , in my opinion any