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Replies to post #70595 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
04/29/17 10:12 AM
We should see a trend change come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 2116911 during March. We need to exceed that level during April to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 2041280 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 1913879 becomes possible. As of the close of Fri. Apr. 28, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now with a moderate bearish undertone suggesting caution on the daily level especially since it's trading below the December 2016 high. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2094051 and is trading up about 5.96% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 2092675 following the high established Wed. Apr. 26, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 27th at 2116911, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of April 17th, which has been a move of 3.34% percent. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in January 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1739916 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Systematically, my long-term view forecast recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been an extended Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials which remains in motion as long as we hold above 1545054 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 8 year rally in motion since 2009. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 1976260, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 1545056 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 1998763 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 1545056 intraday will negate that outcome.
Honing in on the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2024 and 2026. Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 1545056 is penetrated even intraday. Addressing the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. Focusing on the potential for sharp movement, our Panic Cycle targets for the period ahead to watch are during 2016 and during 2026. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.
On the subject of the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of April 17th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 weeks. The last weekly level low was 1788356, which formed during the week of October 31st, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 2116911, which was created during the week of February 27th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 2116911, which was created during March.
