Replies to post #154 on Mongolian Mining Corp. (MOGLF)

[OMOLIVES]

I am going to reply to most of those points....but first I need to mention my "cheat sheet" guidance. I refer back to the 2013 annual(MMC)...and average price of $147Mt for that year.

I also discount a rough 40% to any current bench price/average to get MMC's selling point on HCC.

I have one issue though....the washing of coking coal related to exports of washed HCC. It's not adding up...and I am getting very frustrated.

Now ...I am going to have a few drinks..etc...and hopefully reply to those numbered points individually......a little later.

[OMOLIVES]

With regards to such stated:


"1. Lingering stock price weakness may be the result of the street not liking the reported FY 2016 numbers. According to him, MMC didn't start producing until summer 2016, which led to the sloppy FY16 results."

Then the street is very ignorant. They exported half a million during the last six months of 2015...and mirrored that in the first half of 2016(600 th). There was no market at all...not to mention open discussions started in Jan 2016 leading to the provisional liq during the summer.

"2. He thought 2017 guidance was excellent and conservative: volumes of 4.5MT, costs of $60/ton, current prices at $120 = ~$270M in EBITDA."

Again...that completely mirrors my cheat sheet...2013 annual with regards to export(4.3mt in 2013). The CEO suggested around 50...so that makes sense.

"3. He's spoken to the CFO who has indicated that MMC would be near 100% capacity (7.5 MT) in 2018. CFO also indicated that volumes in late March seemed to be running more like 400k/month, so he thinks they hit closer to 5MT in '17."

That is my frustration...because I can not my head around those HCC washed exports.

"4. Earliest timing for ETT deal is summer/early fall. His line: "It's Mongolia, they're habitually late with everything.""


To me ..that seems overly optimistic/aggressive. My timeline, as such, is Spring of 2018 at the "earliest". In the meantime....welcome all noise/news of such(if positive).

"5. Border is being changed from bilateral (8 hrs/day) to international (24 hrs/day), so big bottleneck opening, which will help with cash conversion."

I did not know that...will research such...good news.