RE: shortterm: Muddy waters.
Agree with you about thing looking one way, and you feeling another. I heard/read someplace that tops are a process (rounding tops, double tops, etc), bottoms are an event (V bottom). That might be why picking tops are harder than picking bottoms; not that either one is easy! I think the cycle guys base their analysis on lows, not highs. Much easier to spot on a chart.
Right now my "tea leaves" have rolled over and are slightly negitive right now. My guess is a 39.05ish close.
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