Replies to post #210652 on Biotech Values

[Whalatane]

Poorgrad I've learn't to appreciate your contribution to this board .

In an answer to your question .." Whats the point "

I find it extremely hard to understand the valuations of many of the stocks we discuss.
Take the recent example of PLSE .
The PPS runs up after early Form 4 disclosures that Robert Duggan ( BOD of Intuitive Surgical , later Ceo of PCYC ) had brought a large position .
PPS later jumps 40% in March solely on the basis of Duggan expanding his ownership to close to 20% of Co ....only to then drop roughly 40% into early April .

So the point is ....to try and determine if there is any fundamental basis for the stocks movement or is it simply technical momentum trading where parabolic moves are always shorted.
JMO
Kiwi

[DewDiligence]

The mindset you elucidated is part of a bigger problem, IMO: The hard-wired binary thinking of many biotech investors (and people in general).

Example: Someone asks me to handicap the phase-3 trial from Company X. I post that I think the trial has a 60% chance to hit the primary endpoint. Then the trial fails, and the original questioner posts that my assessment was too optimistic.

[bladerunner1717]

PGS,

I always appreciate your comments on the board and I respect your scientific knowledge and opinion.

But you make the choices much too binary, i.e. it is not simply a question of a "trading vehicle" vs. fundamental scientific analysis. There are many other factors such as management competency and reliability, whether the trials are the right ones to run, size of the market, competition, cash position, patent position, etc.

So when people come to the board asking for an opinion "because of this or that biological reason," that may be just one factor out of a myriad of factors that a particular investor is considering in his/her evaluation. If the particular investor doesn't necessarily follow the advice relating to the drug or its trials, that doesn't necessarily mean that they consider the stock a "trading vehicle."


Bladerunner