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srg4444

04/07/17 1:49 PM

#2405 RE: Run4Cover #2404

For my 2 cents, arguments for and against CEO make sense. I personally have invested in one of his companies in the past (Cott, right after he left). The activists threw him out, etc. but fair to say Willis' diversification strategy was eventually embraced by new CEO with DS Waters and OJ acquisition. The other failures post seem to be related to product and balance sheet.

I'm in the bullish camp w NBEV...yes, CEO has to deliver and alot could go wrong, but what he's managed to do in short period of time is v smart and is bringing a level of professionalism/urgency that's typically not seen w small caps. Now has a DSD network (distinct advantage), a decent diversified portfolio of brands in exciting categories, a few shots on goal with new products (ie Pedi-ade--which is a $1bn monopoly controlled by Abbott), and alot of rev/cost synergies. There are literally thousands of <$20 MM exciting/nonexciting beverage companies that can't or won't make any profit. Regardless of CEO, putting together 5 of these types of companies to leverage overhead, marketing, finance, etc. is just smart. Lastly, there's a ton of optionality for add'l acquisitions (again, needs to buy right and smart) and the valuation is simply not commanding. There are public bev co's trading at same or higher multiple that are dogs. Underwriting 2018 #s wo new acquisitions doesn't seem very expensive.

You don't have to underwrite the $400MM in sales to win here. If you think it's more like $85-100MM w cost synergies, hard to argue it's expensive.