Replies to post #783 on Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[davidal66]

I sort of agree, but I think and believe that Dror H wants to proceed with inking a deal. Keep in mind that even when term sheets are agreed to, it may still take months to formally ink such a deal. I doubt a pharma who has interest in NASH really cares about success or failure with VBLT. Does it really matter to a pharma if the market cap is 100 million or 400 million?? Doubtful. Besides, any deal will be structured where the bulk of promised cash will be contingent upon progress.... Initial milestone, entering phase I or II, III and approval with the bulk of milestones to be given later rather than now.

I recall another NASH deal with a tiny biotech where the stock doubled in market cap last year. Now if VB-111 was approved and making money, that 'might' change the counters of a NASH deal, but I doubt it. A deal will conclude when the large pharma has all the needed signatures, irrelevant of what VBLT desires or expects on the VB-111 front IMHO.

[davidal66]

Take a look at the worst, expected and best case outcomes for the VB-111 trial regarding NASH.

A. The trial stops for failing to beat futility and the stock price drops to less than cash. I would bet VBLT would not move to Modin and the ovarian trial would be postponed conserving cash. The stock price would crater to 1-2 with the company being able to fund operations without VB-111 until a NASH deal is inked with cash on hand to last well past '19 since they would be in a holding pattern, conserving cash.

B. The trial continues past futility. The stock price would probably move up to 7-8 on the news, they move to Modin and start the Ovarian trial with cash on hand to last into mid '19... more than enough to ink a deal with the interested NASH partner.

C. The trial is stopped for significance--the stock price soars to 12-15 or more; they move to Modin and pursue Ovarian with some additional cash incoming with warrants from the '15 financing, but not enough to pursue NASH, so they wait to ink the NASH deal. Keep in mind, in this most optimistic scenario, they would have to raise even more cash to up the production/preparing for FDA approval!

So in all three scenarios, NASH will be outsourced and, IMHO, the large pharma could really care less about VBLT's status with VB-111.

Botton line, the interest with a large pharma in NASH expands the value of VBLT.

[gr8db8]

wcopeland: if you're referencing this part "Positive interim gives the company more leverage", then the leverage that VBL would gain is getting better terms from its (larger) partner.

It doesn't matter if VB-111 is not part of the partnership. A successful VB-111 would enable VBL to have more options and thus, demand better terms.

[memeil26]

The study design of the Globe trial is almost if not exactly the same as of the phase II they'd been conducting.
The Globe trial is statistically more powered than the previous phase II, so the chance for failure is much less likely given that more than a single phase II of VB-111 was a success. something very wrong should occur to lead this study for a bad results.
But nothing is 100% in this world I guess. and our whole life is a one big gamble, isn't it? ;)