"Yes, timing is everything"
Actually, in the end facts are everything. Short term anything can happen especially with micro cap stocks like VCEL. With enough capital, people can manipulate the share price. But that only works for so long. Ultimately all stocks reach a price level that somewhat resembles their level of success or failure.
So all us poor investors can do is speculate as to what that price might be. We can take wild guesses or try to predict based upon what knowledge we are able to glean.
What we know now:
1. MACI has been FDA approved.
2. It fills a big need in the area of solving knee problems between Microfracture and Total Knee Replacement.
3. There are about 700,000 TKR surgeries per year.
4. If MACI gets 1% of those it would be 7000 procedures per year.
5. That would amount to $308M in revenues.
6. Haven't seen numbers for Microfracture procedures per year but it has to be many thousands. MACI could get plenty of that business.
7. Vericel market cap right now is $88M.
So without even adding in the many millions of revenue from Epicel, and anything from ixCell, just based upon getting a tiny fraction of the knee surgery market, how much should the market cap grow in the next 1 to 3 years?
"I...do not think this is some kind of 10 bagger."
Why not?
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