Replies to post #10743 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Petz]

SOmeone explained to me that the odd powers of 2 are skipped because of row/column addressing inside DRAM chips. With 256Mb chips being the most common now, the sweet spot in DDR pricing is the 512MB module, which has 16 256Mb (64k by 4) DRAM chips in it.

By "sweet spot" I mean that its cheaper to buy a 512MB DDR module than two 256MB modules, and that 1024MB modules are more than twice as expensive.

Its clear that sweet spot will move to 2GB DDR modules as the Dramurai switch to 1Gb chips.

Petz

[wbmw]

Joe, you think the memory industry will skip 512Mb technology, just because you haven't heard of it? I think not. That's the next logical density, so the DRAM makers will take advantage of it. Since new manufacturing processes are usually on a 2-year cadence, you'll see that memory density usually doubles during the same period (though sometimes it's as soon as 18 months, due to half shrinks). As new densities get released, prices will begin to decline for the older generation. It's a fairly stable process, notwithstanding industry wide downfalls, such as 2001. Since 512MB is the norm this year for total system memory, I think we'll see 1GB as the norm in H1 2005, and 2GB as the norm in late 2006 or 2007, at the earliest. Mainstream won't be breaking the 4GB barrier until the end of the decade, though I'm sure the enthusiast market will hit it sooner. Like it or not, that's the trend.

By the way, the "1GB" DIMMs on Pricewatch are actually kits of two 512MB DIMMs. You'll be hard pressed to find actual, inexpensive 1GB DIMMs anywhere. I managed to find some for $799 at Kingston.com, but it was only DDR333 ($526 for DDR266). There are no 1GB DDR400 DIMMs.

http://www.valueram.com/config/type_parts.asp?type=ddr

See for yourself. Just be careful about the ones that say "kit".

[Tenchu]

Joe, When the 256 Mb chip is replaced with 1 Gb, these 2 DIMMs become 4 GB of memory.

More likely, we'll see a lot fewer 16-chip DIMMs and a lot more 8-chip DIMMs being sold. Maybe even 4-chip DIMMs.

Kind of like how the number of platters on hard drives started going down as capacities well exceeded the needs of most consumers.

Tenchu