Replies to post #28008 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/24 2017 EOD

Everything today may be the ultimate result of a "Friday effect". If I forget to repeat it somewhere, just add in the appropriate missing phrase for me. Thanks! :-)

Today the only lasting market sentiment we've seen was reinforced by the Short Report for 03/15/17, +126,241 +4.03%.

As noted below, today was an extremely low-volume flat day, a not-uncommon "Friday effect".

Best case my stuff offers today is near-term continued consolidation with a mild upward bias, as evidenced with today VWAP +1.5%. More likely is sans the upward bias, near-term. This however, good be wrong if today's stuff was the result of a "Friday effect".

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a just before open was 100:1.4K $0.76/$0.85.

Data feeds for Trades screen, up before the open, went down at the open. All b/s/u values through 11:29 are calculated to my best ability. ADVFN replied { We have created a ticket to get our feed for NASDAQ, AMEX, NYSE up running. Out IT is currently on site working with our data provider as they have made this their priority. } Once the feed was back up, all prior trades were mis-allocated b/s/u with all prior trades being assigned unknown. I made the appropriate adjustment going forward.

09:30-11:53 opened the day with a 1,808 sell for $0.7720 & $0.7720 x 150, $0.76 x 200. B/a just after open was 200:1 $0.76/$0.80 (offers backed by presented 600 $0.8149). Then came 9:33's 100 $0.7875, 9:34's 1.6K $0.7600/1 (391), and no more trades through 10:08. B/a at 9:38 was 100:1.1K $0.76/$0.7850, 9:55 900:900 $0.76/$0.7850. Then came 10:09's 760 $0.7650/00, 10:11's 12.6K (incl 12.3K blk $0.7601) $0.7601/$0.7850 (200)/$0.76 (100), 10:15's b/a 900:700 $0.76/$0.7850, 10:21's300 $0.7850/$0.76, 10:26's 375 $0.7741, 10:27's 100 $0.7850, 10:31's b/a 400:600 $0.7701/$0.7850, 10:35's 100 $0.7850, 10:49's 1.3K $0.7849, 10:51's b/a 300:700 $0.7701/$0.7850, 11:02's 281 $0.7701, 11:03 200:700 $0.7701/$0.7850, 11:07's 4.9K $0.7737 (4K)/$0.7701/$0.76, 11:14's b/a 100:400 $0.76/$0.7701, 11:20's 3.5K $0.7672 (3K)/00, 11:23's 2.1K:400 $0.7600/$0.7701, 11:25 6.4K $0.76, 11:29's 100:500 $0.7600/$0.7701, 11:35's 100 $0.7701, 11:39's b/a 600:400 $0.76/$0.7701, 11:48's b/a 700:400 $0.76/$0.7701. The period ended on 11:53's 104 $0.7701.

11:54-13:02, after ten no-trades minutes, apparently began setting up for the daily skinning by doing a rise, which as we all no cometh before a fall! :-) The rise included 12:04's 4.7K $0.7701/61 (100)/01/$0.7850/$0.79 (3.2K)/$0.7740 (100), 12:06's 100 $0.79, 12:13's b/a 200:562 $0.7740/$0.79, 12:29's b/a 100:562 $0.7740/$0.79, 12:37's 100 $0.79, 12:45's 109 $0.7741, 12:47's b/a 100:562 $0.7740/$0.79, 13:02's b/a 100:562 $0.7740/$0.79. The fall, and period end, came on 13:02's 27.9K (85% of the periods 32.8K volume) $0.774->$0.7748-?$0.76->$0.7601, which put price back down to the day's low.

13:03-15:59, during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had 13:06's b/a of 200 $0.76/$0.78. Trade began, through 13:33, with a wide spread, extremely low/no-volume $0.76/8 on 13:14's 100 $0.7601. B/a at 13:17 was 200:1.4K $0.76/8, 13:32 300:1.3K $0.76/8. After no trades 13:34-:36 the extremely low/no-volume continued at a slightly tighter range, $0.76/$0.774 beginning with 13:37's 1.3K $0.7740/$0.7670/$0.7740/$0.76. B/a at 13:47 was 700:400 $0.76/$0.7740. Volume was interrupted by 13:58;s 5K $-.7728. B/a at 14:02 was 690:500 $0.76/$0.7740. Volume was interrupted by 14:09's 2.7K $0.7600/7. B/a at 14:17 was 200:600 $0.76/$0.7740, 14:32 300:600 $0.76/$0.7740, 14:47 200:500 $0.76/$0.7740, 15:02 200:500 $0.7600/$0.7740, 15:17 200:500 $0.76/$0.7740, 15:32 2.3K:600 $0.76/$0.7740. Volume was interrupted by 15:36's 1.9K $0.7612 (1.7K)/00. B/a at 15:47 was 2K:500 $0.76/$0.7740. Volume was interrupted by 15:55's 1.4K $0.76/$0.7740 (100)/$0.76, 15:56's 1.5K $0.76 and 15:58's 4K $0.76/$0.7698 (400). The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.1K $0.76, the official close, because there was no MM closing trade.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 2 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 17,311, 18.07% of day's volume, with a $0.7638 VWAP. Considering the day's low volume, the count is alright, or maybe a bit low, as suggested by the percentage of day's volume, which is also low. The VWAP is slightly below the day's $0.7648. Looking at the buy percentage change from 11:45-12:00, the larger one appears to have been a buy (~12K $0.7601, near the day's low) and the other seems to also be a buy (5K $0.7728), based in the buy percentage change from 15:45-:59. Both are not reliable though as there were other trades in those periods that could account for the buy percentage movement. If I had to guess I would think the first was a shorter doing a covering buy (they are supposedly very astute at that and they also have their broker(s) and the MMs helping as they are typically "good customers" that generate a lot of trading revenue). The second, due to the high price, I would guess is either a retail investor or a short-term trader, like a day trader. Trading that near the day's high suggests either a day trader following their rules or a retail investor.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  11:53   35846 $0.7600 $0.7875    $27,420.86 $0.7650 37.43% 13.46% Incl 10:11 $0.7601 12,311 
  13:02   32775 $0.7600 $0.7900    $25,046.00 $0.7642 34.22% 13.42% 
  15:59   26689 $0.7600 $0.7800    $20,423.36 $0.7652 27.87% 19.77% Incl 13:58 $0.7728 5,000

Other than noting the stable VWAPs, narrow price spread and very low volume, not much can be gleaned from today's breakdown.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today      0.99%   2.66%  -1.57%  -1.30% 168.39% 
 Prior     -2.00%   1.41%   2.90%   1.32% -82.33%

I refer you to yesterday's discussion of these movements, during which was discussing the possibility that we had bottomed. I said { ... With only the open being down, this is looking to have a decent chance of being right. However, the excessively low volume, ~36K, leaves room for wild fluctuations. Steadily declining volume is one of the signs that bottoming is occurring but what we have is a drop from a rise to ~326K dropping to ~201K to ~36, which is not a steady decline. So right now I think today's low volume is less certainly an indicator of a bottom, although it still may be such. } A great deal of that could be repeated, changing only the behavior of the open and high, and still be valid. The volume however was up big on a day with a VWAP up 1.48%, along with a continuing rising low. The volume is still well below the 10-day ~160K average though, so don't read a lot of strength into it yet - it's just suggesting there may have been a bit more strength starting to build.

Time for a new minimal chart.



Visually, the pattern, other than suggesting consolidation, is looking like a return to a leg up within that may be in progress, giving hope that we will shortly continue upward within the consolidation pattern. I added a new short-term rising support (rising green line) that helps this stand out. I don't expect a straight continuous rise on it - I think it will top out somewhere below $0.83 again, at maximum during this leg. However, the saw-tooth nature of it could fit with Elliot-wave theory.

Right now it's looking much like we are in the A-B-C correction phase before continuing higher. N.B. I don't put all that much stock in EWT as there's so darn many exceptions it looks like were added to account for what didn't fit the basic premise. Lots of folks do believe in it though - maybe for the longer-term it holds up well.

We see a typical short-term sideways consolidation going on following the break above the descending resistance (descending red line). We came back down and touched the line and received support, as should have been the case, on Wednesday, 3/22, and then pulled up and away from it these last two days. Combined with very low volume that's a strong sign of the short-term consolidation I believe we are doing. The narrowing spread today is another indication.

The optimist would say the "spring is getting wound tighter getting ready to "bust a move" upward". The pessimist the same, but downward. I say it's just more of the same old same old.

I also said { Tomorrow being Friday I suspect a low-volume flattish day will appear and that likely means we'll not go down to challenge that line again, unless the MM or shorters decide it's a good opportunity for them. Certain behaviors are easier with low volume. }. Flattish is really an understatement today. My first version of the intra-day breakdown had only two periods. It took some arguing with myself to decide a third period was warranted. I'm still not sure that was warranted.

The fast EMS saw a decline begin two days ago and the slow EMA's rate of rise began to decline two days ago. Both continued that behavior. The fast EMA moved down from $0.01702 above the slow EMA to $0.0143 above and now to 8/10ths of a penny above the slow EMA.

The day's range was completely above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band.

Unfortunately, the range stopped "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger upper limit. I noted yesterday, when we were "pushing" the limit, { In the past about half the time this would give us a small continued rise for a few days but the rises generally began on higher volume, which we don't have today. } So today fit the pattern - no volume yesterday led to backing off the "pushing" today.

On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA has now been rising steadily for five consecutive days.

3/22 there was only 16/100ths of a penny down to the 20-day SMA and yesterday it was 23/100ths as the 20-day SMA dropped a bit. With the behavior continuing, it's now 29/100ths.

If we hold here we'll get 3 days (was 6) of rising 10-day SMA, 2 flat and then decline 2 days. The 20-day would have 3 (was 4) days of rise, 2 (was 1) days flat, and 7 (was 11) days of rise. The 50 will go flat 1 (was 1) day, and begin the up/down waves with a rise of 10 (was 11) days. The 200-day would fall ~95 (was 106) days and then rise about 30 (was 22) days. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down waves.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had deterioration in accumulation/distribution (after 2 days of unusual improvement), MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in RSI, Williams %R and ADX-related. Everything but accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are above neutral. Those two are both below neutral.

Today had deterioration in every one but momentum, which improved only marginally. Above neutral are RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), and momentum. Below neutral are accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (by the slimmest of margins), full stochastic and ADX-related.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6856 and $0.806 ($0.6816 and $0.8046 yesterday), stopped the divergence begun yesterday and are converging as the lower limit rises faster than the upper limit. This is a good thing!

All in, everything is colored by the rising, but still extremely low, volume. Rising volume on a down day suggests more downside near-term. But we also had a contracting range, suggesting consolidation, which does have its ups and downs. I'm thinking the volume trend is more significant here - declining since 3/21's ~353K when we touched $0.822 and closed at $0.79. A "cupping pattern" in the volume bars is a common occurrence of a decline, bottoming and reversal. Unfortunately, it's also a common occurrence as part of a continuation pattern that doesn't reverse.

For the optimistic take to hold we need to see an up day now with rising, or at least not lower, volume. More down days with rising volumes indicates the opposite of what we desire for price.

Since I've been of the opinion that we are generally within an up-leg within consolidation, I may tend to read this more optimistically than maybe I should (confirmation bias). Combined with the minimal chart patterns though, I think the more optimistic view is justified. Moving on from that item ...

Nothing in the intra-day breakdown or the conventional TA, other than the new potential rising support on the minimal chart (new green line) and the declining volume trend, currently suggests near-term appreciation.

I would have to suggest best near-term case right now is continued consolidation with a mild upward bias. More likely is consolidation with no upward bias, but some typical up/down moves. But this may be a "Friday effect".



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and the short percentage is just above the top of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage went into the dumpster. This argues for two things, especially considering the low volume.

First is that the buy percentage is likely to begin moving toward something more normal, like the low-30% area at least, which may give some price support. Second is that the short percentage is likely a result of the abnormally low number of larger trades, which being often inter/intra-broker trades "behind the curtain" usually generate very few short sales and would "mask" the true short percentage. This lack exposes, in the EOD results, more of the MMs naked shorting activity. During periods of lots of hitting the bids, i.e. "sells", the MMs do naked shorts, which will comprise a higher percentage of the day's volume. Keep in mind some (large?) percentage could be backed by real sell orders whose shares will flow to the MMs accounts, leaving them closer to market-neutral, a desirable state most times.

The spread contracted substantially. This fits with my consolidation thinking with which I've been sticking. Recall that while discussing yesterday's expansion of the spread I said { Normally I would read this as suggesting increased likelihood of movement but the extremely low volume makes that a very unreliable indicator today. Regardless, combined with the higher range today, and my thinking that we had resumed the up-leg within consolidation I've been suggesting, I would normally assess it as supporting a continued range move up as most likely. }

Note we had a higher low and, more importantly IMO, a higher VWAP, which is what I really key on because OLHC are so easily and often manipulated by those with the desire and wherewithal to do so, especially MMs trying to generate trade volume to make their money.

So from my perspective, regardless of OLHC, we had an "up day" of ~1.5%. In this scenario the reduced spread suggests to me that we will continue in consolidation and does not suggest a likely VWAP movement or direction, especially with, again, low volume even though it rose.

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after two days at 13 negatives and 11 positives, improved to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 02/17 is -$0.0189 -2.41%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.0667%, -0.1655%, -0.1595%, 0.2282%, 0.3424%, 0.3026%, 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, and 0.0588%.

All in, I have to discount the short percentage due to the volume and larger trade factors discussed above. I can't discount the buy percentage - it's reality right now. The one bright spot was the VWAP gain on an otherwise dreary day.

Unfortunately I have to discount that somewhat as we all know that it's an instrument of the MMs to try and generate trade volume so they can make money. They are price agnostic and will "guide" the market in whichever direction seems most promising in achieving their goal.

Having said that, if they think "up" is the best direction for them to take the market, then up it will be when there's no other strong market sentiment present (keep in mind the "Friday effect"). Looking at the intra-day behavior, I don't see any likelihood that the MMs would find attractive enough covering buy points to make them get short-term long, so they likely don't have that reason to support price.

Tomorrow might be a completely different scenario, but we do know there's not a lot of market sentiment out there, but for the shorters.

I'm sticking with consolidation with a mild upward bias based on this stuff.

Bill