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Replies to post #229096 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Bonds much stronger than $SPY past month. Wide 1-month spread. Bond bears not too happy of late. $TLT pic.twitter.com/QzfanGMJcW
— Chris Kimble (@KimbleCharting) April 19, 2017
Cause for a pause, let that sink in... https://t.co/7IBIIo3eBR
— Pro-Life (@ProLife4U2) May 15, 2017
S&P 500 not seeing the intraday strength in breadth nor momentum to hold above its prior 2440 high. pic.twitter.com/Mn8GwtUhl0
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) June 9, 2017
It will be ignored until it’s too late.
What’s the last big toy you buy when things have been good for a really long time and you already have all the other toys? An RV, of course. A dubious thing to own if you already have a house, but when the good times seem likely to roll on forever, why the hell not?
And what’s the first thing you sell when you lose your job and your stocks are tanking? That very same RV. Which makes new RV sales a useful indicator of our place in the business cycle.
What does it say now? Here you go:
Notice the mini-spike in the late 1990s and the major spike in mid-2000s, both of which were followed by corrections. Now note the mega-spike from 2010 and 2016.
And how are things going so far this year? Well, the space is on fire:
‘The RV space is on fire’: Millennials expected to push sales to record highs
(CNBC) – RV shipments are expected to surge to their highest level ever, according to a forecast from the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association.
It would be the industry’s eighth consecutive year of gains.
Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries posted huge growth in their most recent earnings report.
Those shipments are accelerating, and should grow even more next year, the group said. Sales in the first quarter rose 11.7 percent from 2016.
Much of the growth can be attributed to strong sales of trailers, smaller units that can be towed behind an SUV or minivan, which dominate the RV market. The industry also is drawing in new customers.
As the economy has strengthened since the Great Recession, and consumer confidence improved, sales have picked up, said Kevin Broom, director of media relations for RVIA.
Two of the major players in the industry, Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries, both manufacturers of RVs, reported huge growth in their most recent earnings report. Thor saw sales skyrocket 56.9 percent to $2.02 billion fromlast year. Winnebago’s surged 75.1 percent last quarter to $476.4 million.
Gerrick Johnson, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, attributed much of that growth to acquisitions. Thor bought Jayco, then the No. 3 player in the industry, last June; Winnebago bought Grand Design in October.
Thor stock has experienced strong growth over the past year of almost 40 percent. Winnebago tells an even better story: Its shares are up 56 percent over the past 12 months.
“They’ve done massively well because they’ve made massively creative acquisitions,” said Johnson. “Wall Street didn’t realize how creative those deals were. Each quarter they came through. The RV space is on fire, and the demand metrics are quite positive.”
"The last time the S&P 500 was up 5 days in a row, with 4 of those days >1% or more, and never closing beneath the 200-day MA was in October 1982.
It happened yesterday also."
The last time the S&P 500 was up 5 days in a row, with 4 of those days >1% or more, and never closing beneath the 200-day MA was in October 1982.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 16, 2018
It happened yesterday also.
Finally, some bad news from Goldman for the BTFDers: "Should the next crash happen closer to a recession, markets may be less likely to rebound quickly."
Only 11% of S&P 500 components are above their 50-day MA.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 12, 2018
This is the lowest since early '16. pic.twitter.com/wCMg0Fw3Xe
If Monday's action wasn't fun enough, this Friday we prepare to send off the year with a quadruple expiration, a day in which all four of the different types of options and futures contracts expire on the same day. Historically, quad witching weeks tend to be extremely volatile as large derivative positions are rolled over.
And here is the kicker: since 1990 the average weekly spread between the high and low for the S&P 500 during December quadruple witching weeks is 3.11%. That doesn’t sound like much but it’s nearly twice the 25 year average and using Friday’s closing data would result in a potential range of 2679 on the high side and 2518 on the low side for the S&P 500 this week.
