Elder - the fact RIM is a publically traded company with 100s of millions of shares outstanding and a heavy "hanger over" of pending conversions from a relatively modest ($6MM) floorless debt package would be enough to scare most legit funding sources away. Some seem to be suggesting a legit company might take stock in a deal... hmm..not sure I buy that given the volatility, size of the OS count, and inability to prevent conversions and selling and a negative impact on share price. But, RIM could always guarantee the investors investment, which they clearly have a track record for doing. It assures the new investor(s) they can't get hurt, as the lower the price goes the more stock they get, but it continues to kill you and me.
My sense is if all the "ifs" you mention were applicable to RIM, they're going to have to let the conversions play out, which I believe they can't prevent anyway, and then do a 1:20 reverse to get their OS share count back in line. Then they can sell 3-5 million shares @ $4 and get in line with a contract manuf and make a chip. Of course, someone could come in right now and buy up the float, or make a hostile takeover bid for 25 cents/sh and RIM would be blessed to get such a deal, given where they are in their commercialization plan.
I don't see RIM getting funding easily as you ask, or even on what you or I would deem good terms, until they get rid of the overhanging threat of the damage the unconverted shares can do to the shareprice after they make a deal (even if it's not for stock, a straight debt deal is going to be collateralized by something... and if the overall value of the company tanks, it won't be acceptable to anyone). I also think the grossly inflated OS count is a huge problem that cannot be allowed to stand. Brad knows this too. It has to be managed.
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