• The market appears to be setting up for a fall which should create some buying opportunities.
The negatives
The breadth indicators deteriorated badly last week and the secondaries continued to under perform the blue chips.
The positives
On the NASDAQ new highs outnumbered new lows every day last week.
Seasonality
Average returns for the coming week have been modestly positive over all years and modestly negative during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle (helped by big losses in 2001).
Conclusion
The breadth indicators deteriorated badly last week and seasonality is negative next week. I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday March 17 than they were on Friday March 10. Last weeks positive forecast was a miss.
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