Replies to post #32378 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

EDUC

I don't believe they will come anywhere near 200 million in fy 2018, but time will tell. I'm thinking somewhere between 130-150 million, I think growth is somewhat slowing down, remember their was a subtle guide down when they issued q3 earnings revs were to be expected over 110 million, and when they issued and 8k weeks later it was down to 109 million. now this is not a big deal, and I do think they will grow significantly y/y but I think your 200 million will prove to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too optimistic based on the evidence with words and I do admit I could be reading too much into it, but based on that 8k I got a feeling things are slowing down.

Now if pretax margin in fy 17 could even reach 7% which is less then the historical numbers of 8-10%. and even take 130 million on revs, would get us to about $1.40 eps after tax. so the stock can still have a decent amount of room to run in the long-run if they execute. The problem is q4 is not gonna look so great, you have to remember margins based on what they said had to be terrible in december with the shipping and overtime fiasco, and if margins weren't great in december which will be about 50% of sales for the quarter, then margins will be weak for the quarter. I could be reading this whole thing wrong, and I see heavy resistance around $10 technically, and at some point this market is due for a correction.Could I be wrong and i'm reading too much into this or the stock never pulls back. sure. But overall I think the risk/reward in the short-run isn't great here, in the long run I believe the stock will be higher, we will see soon enough if I get another chance to reenter or the stock runs without me. time will tell. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.