It's seems pretty definite now that the "non addictive" thing is gone forever -- Olinio is just as addictive as morphine, which I guess is the standard use.
This is bad, but for the specific use that this trial may have covered -- surgical -- I believe the opioid use is of limited duration and under the physician care, and therefore the opiod aspect is not a big deal.
A bigger Bad is that Olino had similar side effects.
However, the comment from the anesthesiologist does indicate that if Olino is available, it will be used. This also is consistent with the post-data analysts commentary and what the company discussed on it's CC. If the analysts felt the commercial prospects were bleak, and if they didn't want to irk the company, they could have just moved to a Hold with a $5 price target.
In a value collapse that we saw in TRVN, a lot of shareholders would have sold out of fear they didn't know the bottom, and it's hard to figure out proper value in such a rush.
In another biotech I own that had a trial failure very recently, CDTX. However, in this case, I increased my position at the bottom of the collapse because the trial that failed was sort of a "let's try this, what the heck" and wasn't the core trial. By Friday, the sellers were gone and the price started to snap back pretty quickly.
The shareholders in TRVN were hanging in a long time in the hope that Olino would be a breakthrough -- non addictive and no side effects. In that case, Olino would have been a blockbuster -- worth a friggin fortune.
Instead, the results showed something else -- a niche drug. However....BP's have a lot of singles and doubles on their roster -- grand slams are far between.
With global licensing potential; with an aging population (as the anesthesiologist stated,) and with anesthesiologists possibly wanting to use a compound where dosage can be used in a more flexible way vs moprhine, the market size might be just fine.
Trial failure is horrifying -- it's terrorizing holding shares in the aftermath with no certainty of the price buyers will pay. It wouldn't be surprising if what should be a minimum $5 stock fell below $4, and is an easy 25-30% simply by being there at the bottom.
Anyway, that's my view so far as I learn more. As I wrote, I took my max position on Friday since I felt the share price is more likely to get higher vs cheaper and this gave me the weekend to see how comfortable I am in holding for now.
Absent whether CARA destroys the party for TRVN, I think I can own this for enough longer so I can understand what I just bought better, without much risk of the price deteriorating (unless we have a general market reversal.)
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As I wrote earlier, the company did a miserable job preparing the market for this eventuality..no investor day; the last CC was forever ago; very little in the way of smart biotech-hedge fund money in the stock (perhaps anticipating the bad.)
...Now with the facts of how well/badly the drug actually performs, the company will develop their marketing plan; look for partners; and move to real-life launch/FDA filing and this information may also help to bolster shareholder confidence.
If we tip back to 3.75 I may add a bit more...though I think we're solid into the 4's now.
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