Really? That means you give it at least a 1/5 chance that Diwan really did something that can cure a disease, is marketable, and is protected by a patent or trade secret, and the management team has the wherewithal to take a drug successfully through clinical development.
I'd give that a 0% probability.
I'd give it a 0% probability that Diwan or Seymour even have will to do so.
If it were a real company with a functional board with non-scamming founders, they would have in-licensed candidates that were already in Phase-1 and 2a from other companies when they were cash-rich and with a market cap of a few hundred mil. That would have been worthy of a 20% chance of success.
Seriously, even an experienced and successful management team, backed by real science and billions of dollars, wouldn't have a 20% of making a successful company out of a novel drug.
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