Honestly? Either way is possible.
As its been previously stated, FNMA as it is today is actually pretty safe. They aren't 100% safe, but still not bad.
I can't get into the minds of Congress or the Treasury...and I can't tell the future. I could give you 100 different "possible" resolutions, that would range from 100% return to shareholders to shareholders being wiped out. At the moment, we just don't know what to expect.