Replies to post #388779 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Jreinhold]

I understand that, 14 is the lowest I've seen valuations.

23-47 was ackman.

The assumption is the warrants get exercised. Tim Howard was saying the thing they will likely end up doing is converting junior preferred to commons, and negotiating some of the warrants for recap so the company wins, government wins and shareholders win. I don't think the warrants will be exercised simply because between the way these companies were treated and possible loss of investment by future shareholders and investors. Doing so would make recapitalization hard.


I think he has the most insight about that. I was curious as to why he picked 17 and not something higher or lower.


I'm in the 40-50 dollar camp myself.

14 while possible isnt the optimal outcome for all involved.

Nor is 125. And yes I realize shareholders have been screwed on a routine basis with this company.

Id take 20, Id take 50, Id love 125.

Either way people that bought in before the trump bump will make out handsomely.

[jeddiemack]

What the analysis does not include is the value in return for the $60B retained capital. Which should yield another 3-5B in net income per year.

So, either way in Tim's analysis the Share price is perhaps 25% more.

Thus the range should be greater.


But, for the same reasons he concludes that the fight over the warrants would prolong the finality, I too have reasoned for so long that the warrants would have to go the way of the west, otherwise they matter at hand can't be resolved for another 10 years.

Thus, I still believe the warrants are dead, and my only guess is the big fishes are going to have to settle this with some side agreements, plus a big NDA.

Peace!

[Sogo]

That's still the valuation I agree with most.

[RickNagra]

I have now read this valuation about 5 times. It seems to make a lot of sense. It does NOT predict a final outcome price but puts us in a range between $14-$70. If you believe this valuation is makes perfect sense to buy as many shares as humanly possible. You would go from $4.15 to a minimum of $14. As a side note I continue to load every week. What are you doing ?