Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/17 2017 EOD
In aggregate, near-term most likely seems to me to be beginning a down-leg within consolidation. The MMs efforts to support price by closing a couple percentage points above range may work but the volume suggests it's a struggle and ultimately I think the market, rather than the MMs, wins. The market's intra-day behavior and volume are telling what I believe to be the true near-term bias.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:44 opened the day with a 18,122 buy for $0.80 & $0.80 x 4,565 (several trades), $0.8032 x 5K, 1.1K $0,80. B/a right after open was 5.7K:10.4K $0.8000/50. Then came 9:31's 8.8K $0.8011/00/$0.7850 (5.2K), 9:32's 200 $0.8008/20, 9:33's 3.5K $0.7851/0, 9:34's b/a 5K:700 $0.7850/$0.79, 9:35's 1.5K $0.79/$0.7850, 9:36's 500 $0.7850, 9:37's b/a 4.5K:4.1K $0.7850/92 (offers falling rapidly), 9:39's 500 $0.7850, 9:42's 100 $0.7867, 9:44's b/a 6.3K:2.3K $0.7850/57 (offers falling), and the period ended on 9:44's 10.7K $0.7850/00/$0.7712/00/05.
9:45-10:09 began a volatile period, from very low/no-volume $0.7705/6 through 9:54, on 9:45's 600 $0.7705/6. B/a at 9:49 was 2.3K:300 $0.7700/6, 9:53 1.5K:400 $0.7707/$0.78. 9:55 began seeing a little more volume that began a rise, hitting 9:55's 900 $0.7706/21 and 9:58's 5.1K $0.7707/46 before falling back the next minute to $0.7706/10 and beginning an extremely low/no-volume rise. B/a at 10:02 was 1.3K:500 $0.7708/50 (bids jiggling 7/8). 10:05's 200 hit $0.7710/50, and the period ended on 10:09's 917 $0.7736/50
10:10-11:56 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7770/$0.78 after 10:10's 100 $0.7910. B/a at 10:11 was 300:800 $0.7750/$0.7910, 10:17 1.3K:900 $0.7751/$0.78, 10:35 600:2.7K $0.7751/$0.78. Range narrowed to $0.7760/1 at 10:41. B/a at 10:47 was 6.4K:400 $0.7760/61, 11:02 6.3K:400 $0.7760/1, 5.2K:200 $0.7760/1, 11:32 5.4K:200 $0.7760/1, 11:47 400:1.5K $0.7762/$0.78. The period ended on 11:56's 6.7K $-/7760/1.
11:57-12:33 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7790/$0.7918 on 11:59's 3.6K $0.7765/50. B/a at 12:02 was 6.6K:600 $0.7780/$0.7930. At 12:09 range was narrowed to $0.7780/$0.78 with falling highs hitting $0.7793 by 12:15. B/a at 12:17 was 5.7K:200 $0.7780/93, 12:33 1.4K:300 $0.7781/93. The period ended on 12:33's 103 $0.7793.
12:34-13:07, after three no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume small rise from $0.7785/$0.785 after 12:37's 1K $0.7793/$0.7850 (695)/$0.7793. B/a at 12:47 was 200:500 $0.7782/$0.78. The small rise occurred on 12:48's 7.3K $0.78/$0.7918 (100) and trading began extremely low/no-volume $0.78/$0.7918 after 12:49's 3K $0.78. The period ended on 13:07's 116 $0.791.
13:08-14:03, during the first thirteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:02 of 800:700 $0.7801/$0.7918 and 13:17 300:50 $0.7820/99. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume sag of the lows from 13:21's 375 $0.7833 while the highs remained at $0.7839. B/a at 13:32 was 400:500 $0.7820/99. 13:37's 100 hit $0.7829 and 13:38's 100 hit $0.7827. B/a at 13:47 was 500:1K $0.7827/99, 14:02 100:1.2K $0.7827/99. The period ended on 14:03's 100 $0.7827.
14:04-15:27 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7801 (quickly down to $0.78)/$0.7851 on 14:04's 1.6K $0.7801/22. B/a at 14:17 was 200:500 $0.7801/61, 14:32 100:500 $0.7850/99. Highs began falling on 14:43's 5.1K $0.7800 (100)/42. B/a at 14:48 was 30.3K:400 $0.7800/50, 15:02 29K:300 $0.7800/42, 15:17 28K:300 $0.7800/1. The period ended on 15:27's 2.6K $0.7800/1.
15:28-16:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7800/42, through 15:53, on 15:28's 1K $0.7801/42. B/a at 15:32 was 200:500 $0.7819/42. Volume was interrupted by 14:42-:43's 41.8K $0.7800/19/00. B/a at 15:47 was 3.3K:400 $0.7800/1. At 15:54 range began sagging lower. 15:57's 1.4K hit $0.778.$0.78. The period and day ended on 15:59's 700 $0.7780 and 16:00's MM closing buy of 1,124 at $0.80, +2.8% above the 15:59 price.
There was one AH 20-share odd-lot buy for $0.795.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 70,584, 34.31% of day's volume, with a $0.7877 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 7 larger trades totaling 52,462, 25.50% of day's volume, with a $0.7834 VWAP. For the volume, the counts seem reasonable but the percentage of day's volume for the first set was pushed to a high level by the opening trade of 18K+. The second set is in a normal range, thanks to a couple "larger larger trades" that appeared in the last twenty minutes of trading when VWAPs were below the day's $0.7836. Note below there were no larger trades 10:10-15:41 when ,as one can see, the volume was extremely low, accounting for only ~37% of day's volume, and VWAP's were generally at the day's highest levels.
All this leads me to think that the majority of the higher prices were due to MM managing the market to their benefit. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:44 54485 $0.7700 $0.8031 $43,302.48 $0.7948 26.48% 68.50% Incl 09:30 $0.8000 18,122 $0.8031 5,000
09:31 $0.8000 4,467
10:09 13600 $0.7705 $0.7800 $10,521.81 $0.7737 6.61% 62.90% Incl 09:58 $0.7746 5,000
11:56 26124 $0.7760 $0.7910 $20,302.39 $0.7772 12.70% 57.91%
12:33 7300 $0.7765 $0.7918 $5,706.04 $0.7816 3.55% 59.23%
13:07 14995 $0.7785 $0.7918 $11,701.52 $0.7804 7.29% 58.34%
14:03 5480 $0.7827 $0.7839 $4,293.28 $0.7834 2.66% 55.62%
15:27 22200 $0.7800 $0.7851 $17,349.47 $0.7815 10.79% 55.17%
16:00 59838 $0.7780 $0.8000 $46,703.85 $0.7805 29.09% 41.03% Incl 15:42 $0.7800 12,300 15,500 5,295
15:43 $0.7800 4,900
Note the fairly steady trajectory of the buy percentage regardless, the VWAP had a "hump" beginning just before midday and lasting until roughly the last half-hour of trading. I suspect, not having peeked yet, that the intra-day short percentage will be relatively high.
Peeked! Nope! Pretty much in the middle of my desired range and almost flat with yesterday.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 0.03% -0.24% 1.91% -39.09%
Prior 1.27% 0.86% -3.01% -1.88% -36.23%
In spite of the flatness of the open, low and high and gain in the close, one has to be leery of the apparent "steadiness" (or "strength") because of the volume behavior two consecutive days. Being out of my "three-day window" for catalysts, we observe the market behavior returning to form.
On my minimal chart, a new one yesterday, I said { ... note the long descending red line and the horizontal white line. }. Today our high didn't meet the white line, $0.83, and it topped just about dead-on the descending red line. The close was below it. There was also the new, very short-term, rising green line, a potential trend support (although my "three-day window" would suggest it was destined to not be a support). About 80% of our price range was below that line and the close was barely above it. The VWAP today, $0.7907, being substantially below that line (est. ~$0.8020 today) tells the true story.
With volume weakening two consecutive days and only MM actions giving us higher opens and closes I expect we'll drop below that green line completely tomorrow.
With three lines all in the same area I still can't call "confirmed resistance" on the white, $0.83, line.
The long descending red line is confirmed resistance now though.
The fast EMA is still above the slow EMA though and is still rising. As with yesterday though, don't give it too much weight in your decision-making right now - the falling, and very low volume, make all such indicators suspect.
Contrary to yesterday, when volume falling was good because it was a down day, today's falling volume is bad because it was an up day. But that was only due to the MM's 1.1K $0.80 close +2.8% above the 15:59 price.
These folks are making a habit of this manipulation (per my TFH).
We were doing an up-leg before the PR and the minimal chart's descending red trend line, along with volume and VWAP movement, suggest we should now start a down leg.
Looking at the chart it would be easy to expect a test of $0.70 again, but we have a rising trend line (rising orange line) that should keep us up around $0.72/3 if it holds.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the small rise begun two days back. The 10-day made a small rise for the second day. If we hold here we'll get 7 days (was 8) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 5 (was 6) days of rise and a return to descending for 2 (was 3) days and then would begin rising for 9 (again) days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 8 (was 10) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. We had improvement in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. RSI, momentum and full stochastic were above neutral and accumulation/distribution, MFI, Williams %R, and ADX-related were below neutral.
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. Weakening occurred in ADX-related. RSI and full stochastic are just below overbought condition.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6834 and $0.8417 ($0.6783 and $0.8527 yesterday), resumed converging and went from a marginally rising mid-point to a marginally declining one.
Note our trading range was completely above the mid-point. All things factored in, I expect range to return to wrapped around, or even mostly below, the mid-point. Whether it will be mostly due to trading range movement or BB movement I can't say.
All in, the mixed signals make making a near-term call difficult. The oscillators tell a story of near-term strengthening as most likely while the intra-day buy percentage behavior, continuing MM closing trades well above range, and volume continuing lower even on a supposedly up day, tell a story of near-term weakening as most likely.
I'm going to give the nod to a third factor - the trend lines. Combined with trading range vs. the BB mid-point I think the most likely near-term behavior is starting the down-leg within a (hopefully) consolidation. The trend line factors are that the green line is very short-term combined with falling volume, making it apparently a weaker likelihood, and the long-term nature of the red-line combined with falling volume, making it an apparently stronger likelihood.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, but the short percentage was essentially flat. Regardless, the fact it didn't move in the opposite direction is a good indication of a more normal market. Unfortunately, the buy percentage gave up the three days of good readings, that gave us rising VWAPs, and move by a large magnitude into the are that suggests near-term the weakening in the VWAP today will likely continue, sans a catalyst. Since today is out of my "three-day window" I can't say this surprises me.
The spread continues to narrow and is approaching levels that suggest consolidation. Again, being out of the "three-day window" makes this unsurprising. Considered in conjunction with the intra-day breakdown, buy percentage and VWAP movement I would expect a weakening bias as we return to what was happening before the PR about the order.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fourth consecutive day, 14 negative and 10 positives. Change since 01/13 is $0.0510, 6.97%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%, -0.1396%, -0.2936%, and -0.0947%. It's been nice seeing five positive numbers. Since three of the five oldest readings were relatively large negative moves, as they fall out of the window we could continue to see positive moves if our negative moves are relatively benign in size. "Negative moves"? Yes. Since we are out of the three-day window and seem to be returning to trend, with an expected-by-me negative bias, that seems a fair guess.
All in, everything suggests we have returned, or are returning, to consolidation.
Bill
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