Replies to post #208926 on Biotech Values

[Titan V]

A few more points that might be of interest:

- The existing investigator-sponsored Keytruda combo trial in melanoma will recruit actual non-responders to Keytruda only (as opposed to biomarker predicted non-responders in the first 15) for the remainder of the trial. The immune monitoring data being released on Feb 23 at ASCO-SITC is from this trial.

- Besides the above investigator trial at UCSF, ONCS will be doing its own registration trial in melanoma for patients refractory to anti-PD1 treatment. Patient enrollment is expected to start in Q2 2017. Targetted commercialization is in 2019 with possibility of AA as it is an open label study and there are no other companies targeting to treat patients refractory to anti-PD1.

- For this registration trial, ONCS has said in oral and written presentations that a drug supply partnership is being finalized (they say it's going to be with a "multinational" - we know it is going to be MRK*). At ~65 patients x $150,000 per patient, free Keytruda for the trial would be worth ~ $9.7M. The big question is, will there be an upfront payment as well?

- I believe there will be. At slide #24 of the below webcast from Jan 31, Punit Dhillon talks about peers who might not get to market as fast as ONCS but have valuations in the $300M - $700M range while ONCS sits at $23M. He says this number is going to improve this year. I take this as a hint that the drug supply partnership could include an upfront amount. I could be wrong.
http://noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/8cc84444839e4c1d8edd0504ac99d3e41d?catalog=fafdf0fc-32ee-46e6-af06-097ccda932a2

* Skip to the last slide in the above Noble webcast, second question from the audience regarding drug supply partnership.

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- At a previous presentation, Punit also says their lead program (ImmunoPulse IL-12) could see an exit opportunity within 18 months.

- Besides the above, they have launched a Technology Access Program and in a previous investor presentation Punit said they will announce a few collaborations this year to monetize their TRACE device. Also, as per my understanding, in the event of a sale of the lead program, ONCS will retain TRACE and develop their multigene candidate which could be quite disruptive (please see few but insightful posts from hschlauch at the ONCS iHub board). The collaboration will include a spinoff biotech from KU Leuven. KU Leuven (Belgium) is known btw for spinning off biotechs which have secured 9 figure partnerships with big pharma.
http://oncosec.com/videos/#31

- This company has a lot to going on and its market cap should see an inflection point this year, IMO.