Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/08 2017 EOD
Nothing in the intra-day observation, the intra-day breakdown, the movements in (un)conventional TA suggests anything positive. A faint hope resides in reduced volume but even that is still too high to offer much hope.
After an open just below $0.74, we had initial low/no-volume drop to $0.705 by 9:35, putzed around there to $0.7209 through 9:49, did a couple volume spikes $0.709/$0.7374 and started extremely low/no-volume $0.708/$0.7198 through 10:26. The rest of the day was essential flattish with a weakening bias on very variable volume - longer periods of extremely low/no-volume interrupted by very short periods of high volume as, apparently, some bigger players took advantage of the weak market.
There were XXX pre-market trades.
09:30-10:20 opened the day with a 104 sell for $0.72 & $0.72 x 2, x 35. Then came 9:30's b/a of 1.3K:296 $0.72/$0.74, 9:32's 2.4K $0.7397/6/0/$0.7200/13/$0.7301, 9:35's b/a 1K:500 $0.7200/$0.7398, 9:35's 1.2K $0.7200/50 (200), 9:38's b/a 75:700 $0.7195/$0.7375 (bids backed by presented 100 $0.7051), 9:43's 1.1K$0.7972 (1K)/51, 9:46's 100 $0.7209, 9:50's 4.3K $0.7232/74/32/74/$0.7090, 9:53's b/a 73:$0.7195/$0.7374 (bids backed by presented 2.4K $0.7090), 9:54's 1.2K $0.7218 (1K)/$0.71, 9:56's b/a 200:300 $0.71/$0.7374, 9:59's 1.6K $0.71/$0.7095 (100), 10:01's 100 $0.7199, and 10:03's 1K $0.7100/95/80 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7080/$0.7198. B/a at 10:07 was 6.7K:300 $0.7080/$0.7198. The period ended on 10:20's 119 $0.7198.
10:21-11:08 began extremely low/no-volume, through 10:54, $0.70/$0.7194 (most nearer $0.70 as highs fell rapidly) on 10:23's 5.5K $0.7166/00/$0.7080/00. B/a at 10:23 1.1K:6.3K $0.7100/94. Volume was interrupted by 10:27's 9.9K $0.7080/00. B/a at 10:34 was 27.1K:2.8K $0.7000/53, 10:48 26K:300 $0.7000/1. After 10:54 a pattern, through 11:06, of no-trades minute and high-volume minutes occurred: 10:55's 11K $0.70, 10:56's b/a 30K:300 $0.7000/1, 10:58's 16.2K $0.70, 11:01's 12.2K $0.70 (incl 10K blk), 11:03's b/a 49K:200 $0.7000/1, 11:04's 12K $0.70 (incl 9.3K blk), 11:06's 12.1K $0.70, 11:08's b/a 25K:300 $0.7000/1. The period ended on 11:08's 2.3K $0.7001/63.
11:09-11:48, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7002/$0.7220, with the low moving quickly to $0.7001 and rapidly falling highs, on 11:14's 186 $0.7002. B/a at 11:35 was 500:2.1K $0.7001/19, 11:44 200:1.4K $0.7001/2. The period ended on 11:48's 900 $0.7002.
11:49-13:11 began very low/no-volume $0.7003/$0.7170, with falling highs, on 11:49's 100 $0.717. Volume was interrupted by 11:55's 2.8K $0.7003. B/a at 11:57 was 700:3.3K $0.7003/99, 12:17 100:1.8K $0.7706/97, 12:33 100:1.6K $0.7006/96, 13:08 25K:1.8K $0.7000/24 (falling rapidly), The period ended on 13:11's6.4K $0.7006/12/...00/50/30.
13:12-13:34 began an extremely low/no-volume rise to 13:22's 190 $0.7176 on 13:12's 100 $0.71. B/a at 13:17 was 500:4.5K $0.7100/77. 13:24's 100 $0.7088 lead into ending the period on higher volume: 13:27-:34's ~30K $0.7001/00/01/00/16/32/30/00 (10K blk).
13:35-14:08 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7000/31 on 13:39's 1.6K 13:47 15.6K:600 $0.7000/1. B/a at 13:40 was 15.6K:200 $0.7000/10 (offers dropping rapidly), 14:03 15.8K:1.6K $0.7000/36 (offers dropping). The period ended on 14:08's 10.3K $0.70.
14:09-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began $0.7249/99, with quickly falling range, on 14:09's 8.4K $0.7003/$0.72. Range was dropped on 14:16-:17's 7.9K ea. doing $0.7200/$0.7086/40/85 and $0.7035/08/07 to start $0.72008/$0.71. B/a at 14:17 was 200:400 $0.7025/$0.71, 14:32 300:500 $0.7002/$0.72, 14:32 300:500 $0.7002/$0.72. 14:34-36's 300 interrupted price doing $0.7199->$0.71. B/a at 14:47 was 400:900 $0.7003/$0.7197. Volume was interrupted by 14:59's 5.9K $0.7026/96. B/a at 15:02 was 265:1.6K $0.7026/95. Volume was interrupted by 15:16's 11.3K $0.7093 (10.5K blk)/50. B/a at 15:17 was 165:300 $0.7026/93, 15:32 2K:2.3K $0.7030/91, 15:47 54.9K:500 $0.7000/27. Volume was interrupted by 15:49's 12.5K $0.7028/29/15/29/15... B/a at 15:55 was 40.7K:600 $0.7000/75. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.1K $0.7020 and 16:00's 253 $0.7020,
There was one AH buy: $0.82 x 1.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were X larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 124,524, 46.73% of day's volume, with a $0.7039 VWAP. As with yesterday, for the volume both the count and percentage of day's trade volume are excessively high. The VWAP is below the day's $0.7048. Looking at the breakdown, you can see the larger trades all came in the lower VWAP periods, which were hard to not find with the buy percentage being where it was. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:20 23552 $0.7050 $0.7397 $16,866.03 $0.7161 8.84% 20.83% Incl 09:53 $0.7090 5,727
11:08 82978 $0.7000 $0.7194 $58,249.11 $0.7020 31.14% 10.15% Incl 10:27 $0.7080 4,300 10:55 $0.7000 8,000
10:58 $0.7000 5,493 4,055 11:01 10,000
11:04 $0.7000 10,000 11:06 $0.7000 9,300
11:48 11311 $0.7001 $0.7220 $7,962.46 $0.7040 4.24% 15.53%
13:11 24401 $0.7000 $0.7170 $17,173.40 $0.7038 9.16% 19.50%
13:34 31179 $0.7000 $0.7176 $21,855.87 $0.7010 11.70% 18.06% Incl 13:27 $0.7000 4,500 13:30 $0.7000 4,914
13:34 $0.7000 10,000
14:08 14450 $0.7000 $0.7040 $10,118.37 $0.7002 5.42% 17.53% Incl 14:08 $0.7000 8,600
16:00 77554 $0.7000 $0.7299 $54,855.71 $0.7073 29.10% 26.94% Incl 14:09 $0.7200 4,750 14:16 6,300
14:59 $0.7096 5,785 15:16 $0.7093 10,500
15:49 $0.7029 7,800 15:51 $0.7000 4,500
With the buy percentage moving big 14:09-EOD when VWAP was lowest, my guess is that day traders and/or MMs and shorters were doing their covering buys in this period. The preceding buy percentages conclusively demonstrate there was no bullish sentiment earlier, in fact it would suggest heavy shorting was the most likely activity. Some likely from day traders and most was likely MMs as they handled sell orders. I'm expecting short percentage will be a bit high.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.13% 0.00% 0.00%* -2.50% -31.91%
Prior -3.20% -4.11% 2.50% -1.38% 8.44%
*Similar to 2/7, the $0.82 high was from 1 AH $0.82 x 1 trade. Real high was $0.7397, up 0.37% from 2/7's real high of $0.7370. Using the real highs, today breaks the five consecutive preceding lower highs trend, although I don't think 27/100ths of a penny is really worthy of being considered higher. It's just an artifact of the MMs working the market with fractional-penny trades to accomplish their goals.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { ... the close was almost right on the descending support (upper falling orange line ...) ... rising volume on a down day looks like near-term increased weakness is quite likely. ... I know expect we'll start penetrating that descending support and face the risk of closing below and confirming. }
Ignoring the typos, it looks like price is going to meet those expectations as today we penetrated and closed below that descending support (upper orange line). The volume was lower today, suggesting the down-draft is losing some strength, but it's still high enough that I strongly suspect we will trade (mostly?) below the line and confirm a break below the support by closing below regardless of the AH 1-share $0.82. That descending orange line would then become resistance.
The fast EMA continues below the slow EMA for the third day.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the falling begun two days ago while the 10-day gave up slightly increasing and began to decline. If we hold here we'll get again 9 more days of falling 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 5 (was 4) days of decline, two days of rise and a return to descending. If we hold here the 50 would decline all but three days, and the 200-day would again fall ~194 (was ~175) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, weakening in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (oversold), full stochastic (oversold), and ADX-related. Only MFI was above neutral and all others were below.
Today had weakening in every oscillator. MFI (untrusted by me) was the only one above neutral. All others were below and Williams %R and full stochastic were oversold, for the second and third day respectively.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6461 and $0.8537 ($0.6433 and $0.8547 (erroneously reported as $0.8457 yesterday) yesterday), are now converging with an almost static mid-point. For the second day the trade range was below the mid-point.
All in, only the reducing volume offers anything that could be construed as positive, and that would be a stretch because the volume is still high enough to suggest there remains strength in the move lower.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and by big margins in both cases. This id decidedly not good. Short percentage is substantially above my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage is below the range of possibly suggesting a rise for the 7th consecutive day. The buy percentage was substantially worse than the ending value (see intra-day breakdown above) and got to this level most likely to various folks covering short-term short positions.
The spread is excessive, but not as bad as it seems if the "official" high of $0.7397 is used. In that case the spread would be 5.67%. This would put the spread just slightly above what I would look for if we were in/entering consolidation.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings deteriorated for the second day from 15 negatives and 9 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 01/04 is -$0.0606, -7.92%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, and -0.1914%.
All in, nothing positive here.
Bill
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