Replies to post #1125 on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT)

[fishhunter]

I agree with your point about Bret Jensen but disagree with your more general statement about pros trading biotech see announcements as a way to make money shorting.....at least with respect to CNAT.

Since Dec19, Longs in CNAT stock have made many millions more than Shorts in CNAT stock. Furthermore, while short interest doubled in CNAT immediately after the announcement, it got cut back in half between late Dec and Jan 13th and now stands at an insignificant number well below 1mil shares.

What I have seen with CNAT since the announcement is the initial strong Buy reaction. That was followed by the very well orchestrated walkdown from 5.5 to 4.1 on very low (relative) volume and inconsequential small (but very timely)trades.

I have also learned that very few pros and very few retail stock pickers (like me) do a good job of valuing risk and reward. I have also learned that the vast majority of pros and retailers are very stupid (not a new lesson).

Based on the press release, SEC filings, and the Conf call, CNAT should obviously be trading in the $8 to $10 range right now and about $15 to $18 when Novartis signs. And it will.