Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 31, 2017.
Crude oil: Yet another week in which bulls were unable to take out resistance at $54-plus but defended support at $52-plus.
This week was preceded by seven weekly doji out of eight, with spot West Texas Intermediate crude sideways the past eight weeks. This, of course, followed a massive rally off the lows of last February during which oil more than doubled.
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are tightening. A big move is likely. The path of least resistance remains down – particularly considering inventory continues to be an issue.
For the week of January 27, U.S. stocks rose across the board.
Crude inventory was up 6.5 million barrels to 494.8 million barrels – a 22-week high. Gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels to 257.1 million barrels, which was the highest since last February. Distillate stocks increased 1.6 million barrels to 170.7 million barrels – the highest since October 2010.
Similarly, crude imports rose 480,000 barrels per day to 8.3 million b/d.
Refinery utilization inched down one-tenth of a point to 88.2 percent. This is down from 93.6 three weeks ago, which was a four-month high.
Crude production dropped a tad, down 46,000 b/d to 8.9 mb/d. Last week’s total was the highest since April last year.
Even as spot WTI is showing signs of indecision/fatigue, non-commercials now hold record net longs. Beware the unwinding – timing notwithstanding!
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