Replies to post #7781 on Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[Lincoln72]

Denny,

Thank you for all your analysis.

Wow! Even assuming 10X lower valuation would mean ~500M. That would be great!

I am actually more interested in what that money could do for the company in the future --> no more liquidity mismatch, removal of going-concern doubt, much more leg room to take risks (& collect rewards), new business initiatives, NYID approval, Up-listing, etc...

Hence, I am on the glass half-full side. In this case, it seems to be filling to the brim!

Cheers,

[rockraider3]

I looked up a few of the leases yesterday, started a post, but then had to quickly leave my desk and lost it all.

A couple of them that I remember off the top of my head: Syncora extended the Windsor Tunnel lease through 2040 with the Detroit BK deal. The Orange Beach Alabama Bridge lease was around 40 years originally, and I think we are about 10-15 years into that.

The Skyway and Indiana Toll leases were pretty extraordinarily long, in my opinion, but clearly impacted the EBITDA multiples an operator could pay for them. Would you pay 30x for an asset that will run for 89 years, with the ability to increase toll rates over time? Sure thing. Would you pay 30x for an asset that will run for 23 years like Windsor Tunnel? No, but you might pay 8x or 10x. The multiple that American Roads might achieve would probably be a blended rate based upon their various contracts.

But I know I am preaching to the choir here.