Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 12/30 2016 EOD
Primarily due to the volume, a presumption of end of tax-loss selling and mixed (un)conventional TA signals, I think we now enter a short-term consolidation. There may be a bit more downside but I expect it will be the start of this consolidation. I would not be surprised to see some upside as the start of this though. Contrarian views are quite common and see prices this low as being a sign of opportunity.
N.B. See my TFH note below about the AH trade.
Today was flattish low/medium-volume until 10:19's 11.7K started a long run lower to finally bottom on 12:12's 38.7K $0.6668/$0.872. The rest of the day consisted of small flattish and down segments within a longer slow up trend until 14:26 onward established a firm trend higher into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:02 opened the day with a 5,012 sell for $0.7110 & $0.7110 x 150, x 100, $0.7111 x100, x 100. Then came 9:33's 12.5K $0.7110/58/11/10/02/00, 9:35's 600 $0.7130, 9:37's 300 $0.7120, 9:38's b/a 10.1K:700 $0.7120/57, 9:40's 820 $0.7155 (1K)/40, 9:41's 340 $0.7141, 9:42's 1.1K $0.7155 (1K)/40, 9:43's 800 $0.7155/7/49/58/43, 9:44's 10.4K $0.7134/20 (10.3K), 9:45's 5.7K $0.7123/20/56/20, 9:47's 10K $0.7120 (7K)/00, 9:48's 5.5K $0.7100/39 (325), 9:51's 300 $0.7155/12, 9:53's 2.5K $0.7111/02/1/0, 9:54's 300 $0.7158, 9:55's b/a 1.1K:300 $0.7100/56, 9:57's 100 $0.7111, 9:59's 700 $0.7150/00, 10:01's 5.8K $0.7100/09 (800), and the period ended on 10:02's 875 $0.7110/02
10:03-10:32, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume drop from $0.7110/38, initially only with falling highs, on 10:04's 2.3K $0.7149/00/50. B/a at 10:07 was 2.6K:900 $0.7100/43, 10:08 2.6K:1K $0.7100/42, 10:13 2.6K:1.1K $0.7100/43. The big drop came when 10:20's 159.3K did $0.7100 (including notable blocks of 75K, 4K, 9.8K, 9.1K, 6.2K, 9.6K, 6.8K)/$0.7096/50/94/52 (incl (14.8K blk)/50. 10:26's 9.1K hit $0.7050/61/07/10/90, 10:30's 30.6K hit $0.7007/00/$0.6950/$0.70/ ... $0.6999, 10:32's 1.4K hit $0.6998/50 to finally stop the drop and end the period.
10:33-10:53, after one no-trades minute, began very low-volume $0.6901/$0.70, through 10:48 with rising lows, on 10:34's 22.3K $0.6989/01/87/85/87/00/86/89/90/89/$0.70/$0.6900/89/$0.70. B/a at 10:35 was 5.2K:1.9K $0.6901/$0.70, 10:37 5.4K:1K $0.6901/90, 10:47 900:2K $0.6911/$0.70. 10:49 began dropping the highs and the rise of the lows decelerated. B/a at 10:53 was 200:300 $0.6920/98. The period ended on 10:53's2.4K $0.6920/11/20.
10:54-12:53 began a much slower very low/no-volume decline on 10:54's 7K $0.6900/20/11/20/00/$0.6813/99. B/a at 10:56 was 400:500 $0.6810/94. The decline bottomed on 11:07's 2.8K $0.6750/00. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.67/8. B/a at 11:13 was 6.3K:4.5K $0.67/8, 11:22 1K:2K $0.6751/$0.68. Highs fell and range narrowed to $0.6750/80 at 11:23, dropped a notch to began $0.6710/46 at 11:32 and finally the high collapsed and range became $0.6710/22 at 11:38. B/a at 11:46 was 10.3K:600 $0.6710/22 (next presented bid 14.7K $0.67). Price and volume were interrupted by 11:57's 20K $0.6715/50. B/a at 12:02 was 6.1K:1.2K $0.6710/20. Price and volume were interrupted by 12:11-:13's 80.5K $0.6710/11/10/21/20/13/10/14/20/16/20/11//13/11/10/00/05/00/10/00/$0.6668/$0.6700/$0.6668/00. The period ended on 12:53's 1K $0.6731/3.
12:54-13:24 began a extremely low/no-volume rise on 12:54's 21.3K. B/a at 12:58 was 300:1.5K $0.6771/$0.68, 13:02 300:1.5K $0.6770/$0.68, 13:17 300:1K $0.6770/$0.68, 13:19 1.1K:200 $0.6800/03. The period ended on 13:24's 4.6K $0.6801/3.
13:25-14:18, after three no-trades minutes, began a mostly low/medium-volume $0.668x/$0.6750 after dropping on 13:28's 15K $0.6801/0/$0.6700/50/00/$0.68. B/a at 13:39 was 700:700 $0.6680/$0.67. Price was interrupted by 13:50's 6.3K $0.6702/1/2/3/4/$0.6887/43/50. The period ended on 14:18's 4.3K $0.6729/47/50/39/09/20/50/39/ ... $0.6690//3/0.
14:19-15:00 did a mostly low/medium-volume, wide-spread, volatile stepping up, while almost continuously raising the lows, on 14:19's 2.5K $0.6725/50/$0.68/$0.6750, hit 14:26's 200 $0.6889, 14:28's 11.8K $0.6725/$0.70, and ended the period on 15:00's 4K $0.677/$0.6999.
15:01-16:00 initially began an extremely low/no-volume flat $0.6774/$0.6802 through 15:20 on 15:01's 100 $0.68. Then the beast began to stir and began an extremely low/no-volume volatile push of the highs higher while the lows mostly held steady fluctuating in the range of $0.6800/07 (check the intra-day breakdown below to see where the weight was at - mostly from the higher volumes in the 14 minutes prior to the close). B/a at 15:17 was 4.4K:1K $0.6800/1, 15:21 3.4K:600 $0.6806/$0.6901. 15:22's 100 hit $0.6809, 15:29's 500 hit $6807/$0.6912. B/a at 15:31 was 9.8K:1.1K $0.6807/$0.6960. 15:31's 1.1K hit $0.6807/6953, 15:36's 300 hit $0.6807/$0.696. B/a at 15:47 was 6.8K:1.8K $0.6807/$0.70. 15:47's 5K hit $0.693/$0.70. That's as high as it got and the period and day ended on 15:59's 28.48K (unusually large minute compared to recent) $0.6989/$0.70/$0.6950/00/$0.6817/$0.69/$0.70/ ... $0.6817/$0.69/$0.6817/50/17/01 and 16:00's 100 $0.6801 closing trade.
There was one AH trade of 100 shares for $0.71, up 2.93% from the closing price, at 18:35:55. My TFH tells me this is exactly what's been seen in the past when MMs try and create a false bullish signal when we have a close like we had at $0.6801 x 100!
Including the opening trades (closing didn't qualify), there were 55 larger trades (>=5K & 11 4K+) totaling 458,296, 38.78% of day's volume, with a $0.6914 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 54 larger trades totaling 454,146, 38.43% of day's volume, with a $0.6912 VWAP. Even considering the ~1.2MM trade volume, the counts and percentages are high. The number of "larger larger trades" (13) is also larger. Looking at the number of 4K+ trades that looked like they were part of larger trades, I think if the MMs hadn't had to "chunk" some larger trades the count would be even higher and our percentages of day's volume even higher while the count of larger trades would fall.
The VWAPs are substantially above the day's $0.6867. Combined with the low buy percentage (see below), I suspect two things - a lot of tax-loss selling and shorters covering their short positions, continuing the trend seen in the 12/15/2016 short interest report, to lock in their profits for the tax year. At these prices, and the prices at which they were shorting, they'll look really good and reduce their downside risk to minimal.
I commented on stocktwits today that I thought this looked like capitulation volume. That was based only on volume and intra-day price behavior at the time. Today's EOD results seem to reinforce that thought.
We'll know in a few days I think. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:04 66280 $0.7100 $0.7158 $47,190.53 $0.7120 5.61% 16.39% Incl 09:30 $0.7110 5,012 6,123
09:44 $0.7120 10,000 09:47 6,900
10:34 253146 $0.6900 $0.7150 $179,191.44 $0.7079 21.42% 9.19% Incl 10:17 $0.7100 7,800 11,320 10:19 4,150
10:20 $0.7100 75,000 4,170 6,200 6,800
10:20 $0.7100 9,050 9,600 9,800
10:20 $0.7052 14,846 10:26 $0.7050 5,400
10:30 $0.7000 5,000 9,200
10:34 $0.6989 6,300
10:54 88770 $0.6900 $0.7000 $61,925.52 $0.6976 7.51% 22.06% Incl 10:43 $0.6970 4,100
12:54 337653 $0.6600 $0.6920 $227,380.96 $0.6734 28.57% 26.55% Incl 10:58 $0.6820 5,000 11:04 $0.6815 5,000
11:14 $0.6750 5,000 11:29 4,800
11:31 $0.6750 4,200 11:33 $0.6746 5,000
11:46 $0.6711 8,000 11:47 $0.6710 5,000
11:50 $0.6719 5,000 12:11 $0.6710 10,000
12:11 $0.6710 15,300 $0.6720 4,500
12:12 $0.6711 5,300 $0.6700 5,000
12:33 $0.6700 7,078 12:34 $0.6743 4,300
12:37 $0.6701 8,000 12:43 $0.6744 4,000
12:54 $0.6800 6,282
13:28 82726 $0.6738 $0.6803 $56,137.96 $0.6786 7.00% 30.43% Incl 12:58 $0.6800 6,400 13:09 $0.6771 4,500
13:17 $0.6800 6,900 13:24 $0.6801 4,000
13:28 $0.6800 10,000
14:19 189030 $0.6680 $0.6887 $126,745.75 $0.6705 15.99% 30.31% Incl 13:29 $0.6700 31,785 13:38 5,000
13:42 $0.6700 5,000 13:53 13:54
14:06 $0.6700 10,000
15:01 38714 $0.6701 $0.7000 $26,615.20 $0.6875 3.28% 32.46% Incl 14:28 $0.7000 9,400 14:49 $0.6857 4,780
16:00 119761 $0.6774 $0.7000 $82,482.33 $0.6887 10.13% 33.11% Incl 15:45 $0.6930 5,700 15:55 $0.7000 5,000
15:59 $0.6900 6,300
18:35 100 $0.7100 $0.7100 $71.00 $0.7100 0.01% 33.12%
Note the AH trade, which my TFH says is bait for the unwary fish. However, if today really was capitulation and there are few sellers left and potential buyers lined up, my TFH could be all wet.
Time will tell.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:[pre[ __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -5.20% -7.04% -5.25% -5.08% 146.55%
Prior 0.00% -3.53% -1.18% -3.18% 11.24%The volume increase, along with the absolute volume relative to our average trading volume, strongly suggests we have reached the bottom. But we have wondered many times in the past if that was the case and have most often been wrong.
On my minimal chart yesterday, while discussing volume and the second close below the $0.75 potential support level, I opined { The rising volume suggests strength in the move lower and there's likely a bit more downside left. } With a close down ~5% and volume on the down day up ~147% we may have seen capitulation and the end, mostly, of the move lower for now. If this is the case we should see the move lower decelerate strongly and volume drop drastically.
I suspect a lot of what was observed today was the final tax-loss selling and, if so, there now exists less reason for strong selling regardless of price and good reason for buyers, like shorters doing covering buys, to dominate. I don't believe there's enough positive sentiment in the market to incite the proverbial "short squeeze", but the entry into a near-term consolidation as MMs making the market during covering buys by the shorters does seem likely to occur.
The fast EMA continued descending for the fourth consecutive day. The gap up to the slow EMA continues to widen.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are still descending and converging as the upper limit falls more quickly than the lower limit.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch again had weakening RSI, accumulation/distribution, and ADX-related. Marginal improvement again occurred in momentum and Williams %R, but full stochastic switched from marginal improvement to weakening. MFI (untrusted by me) was flat as it remained at it's lower bound of 0 for the third consecutive day.
Today weakening again occurred in RSI, accumulation/distribution, and ADX-related. Momentum was added to that list today. MFI remained flat at its lower bound of 0. Strengthening was seen in Williams %R and full stochastic. Both are still oversold. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6566 and $0.9142 ($0.6700 and $0.9393 yesterday)
All in, yesterday I said { As before, one could believe the volume suggests we had a flush and the sinking will cease. I'd really like to buy that but I have to see reducing volume and improvement somewhere, even if just my unconventional stuff before I can even think about that. }
Today, we had sufficient volume, in both degree of rise and absolute volume relative to recent volumes, to believe that we saw a flush, likely final tax-loss selling I guess, that suggests we are near the bottom. As mentioned above, we should start to enter short-term consolidation if the MMs and shorters doing covering buys do their parts. It really can't be "the market" unless a big change in sentiment has occurred based on nothing but TA(?) or a contarian attitude.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, but buy percentage movement was small enough to be treated as flat. The short percentage is below my desired range (needs re-check). I suspect this is not ominous today when I look at other things.
First, the odd-lot percentage is quite low, suggesting more intra/inter-broker trades and that seems supported by the larger block trades, which often go off "behind the curtain", bypassing the MMs. It's common also that some of these are brokers'/dealers' trading desks taking (or selling) the larger blocks (as well as smaller trades) and these generally don't generate short sale flags. Second is the larger trades, which account for a very high percentage of day's volume (see above) and often are executed as just described, reducing short percentage.
The spread widened again but was accompanied by volume sufficient for me to make a SWAG that it does not carry the negative portent I would normally associate with it when in a down trend.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the ninth day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 11/25 is -$0.2130, -23.67%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, -0.7936%, -0.8037%, -0.7222%, -0.7346%, -0.6354%, and -0.0814%.
All in, three things could be construed as less negative here, but only when combined with the volume increase and absolute volume relative to recent volumes. First is the buy percentage being considered flat, second is the very small odd-lot percentage and third is the volume, and percentage change itself. I combine these and believe that we will now begin some short-term consolidation.
Bill
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