Replies to post #263119 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

fuagf, and all in Texas -- in apparently about 5-7 hours here, a risk of severe -- current outlook maps (will update to tomorrow's outlook at 1200Z) -- we're just within the northern extent:





from complete current Day 1 Convective Outlook at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

and this is one of those 100% it's definitely coming deals, pretty much everyone everywhere within the outlooked area is going to be affected (at least some strong if not severe wind) -- event already under way and rather conspicuously on the move (and yes, that is a strong little eastward-advancing upper level low, a shortwave aloft, quite directly/visibly driving the event):


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains_lite.php [will remain current; refresh this post to see the latest]


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains_lite_loop.php [will remain current; refresh this post to see the latest]

having so far generated 8 severe thunderstorm warnings where it is and has been still well west of the outlooked area:

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
College of DuPage Meteorology
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/ [click on the location of the NWS office to bring up the particular warning; click on the location's 4-letter (e.g., currently, 'KMAF') station ID to bring up a list of and view recent severe weather statements issued by that office]

and now a mesoscale discussion

( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0002.html ) -- stating a 60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch I expect they'll issue (main Storm Prediction Center link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0002.html , watches page http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ , mesoscale discussions page http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ )