Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 12/07 2016 EOD
With the appearance of trading alerts in the last two days, and subsequent appearance of rising, and relatively high, volume, I have to concede the manipulation is being successful. The only real negatives right now are the short and buy percentages and they can be explained by some possible scenarios that would account for the bad readings without negating the effectiveness of those pushing price higher right now.
Having said that, my inner TFH still yells that the shorters will jump in at some point and prevent 10 consecutive days of >=$1 bids, negating the pending notification of de-listing risk.
But I've been wrong this whole move up, even knowing what was going on. I didn't believe it could be as effective and sustained as it has been. Bad on me!
Looks like a desperation move happened AH - a 100-share buy for $0.98, beating the intra-day high of $0.9799. Likely because the late-day push couldn't do like yesterday's late-day push and set and new high. Today's failed.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:34 opened the day with a 2,281 buy for $0.97 & 200 more for $0.95. B/a at 9:31 was 100:979 $0.95/8. Then came 9:32's 406 $0.95/$0.9710, 9:34's 7.3K $0.9490/$0.9121/$0.9412 (5K)/$0.9121, 9:35's 300 $0.9411/$0.9121, 9:38's b/a 200:4.5K $0.9411/$0.9690, 9:40's 415 $0.9412/85, 9:41's 350 $0.9411/23, 9:50's b/a 300:600 $0.93/$0.9499, 9:52's 400 $0.9499, 9:54's 200 $0.9498, 9:57's b/a 300:600 $0.9302/$0.9498, 10:00's 100 $0.9386, 10:04's b/a 900:700 $0.9401/98, 10:04's 100 $0.9498, 10:07's 100 $0.9401, 10:10's 575 $0.9401/10/02, 10:12's 100 $0.9403, 10:12's b/a 700:300 $0.9402/97, 10:14's b/a 1K:300 $0.9421/97, 10:15's 600 $0.9496/59, 10:17's b/a 700:300 $0.9422/97, 10:19's b/a 1.2K:200 $0.9404/97, 10:19's 300 $0.9496/7, 10:28's b/a 1.2K:100 $0.9451/97, 10:31's 2.6K $0.9475/71/76, 10:33's b/a 800:300 $0.9458/97, 10:33's 450 $0.9458/75. The period ended on 10:34's 100 $0.9479.
10:35-10:38, after one no-trades minute did a quick drop on 10:36's 12.9K $0.9464/63/50/$0.93/$0.9200/03/00. The period ended on 10:38's 200 $0.9215.
10:39-12:01 had b/a at 10:40 of 300:900 $0.9216/97. After three no-trades minutes, extremely low/no-volume $0.9400/97 began on 10:42's 100 $0.9401. B/a at 10:44 was 900:500 $0.9403/97, 10:56 300:500 $0.9408/97, 11:02 1.4K:600 $0.9411/97, 11:29 800:500 $0.9442/97, 11:43 1.3K:600 $0.9409/97. The period ended on 12:01's 100 $0.9438.
12:02-12:17 began extremely low/no-volume $0.945/$0.95 on 12:02's 200 $0.9439/$0.95. B/a at 12:06 was 800:1.4K $0.9448/$0.95, 700:1.8K $0.9465/$0.95. The period ended on 12:17's 205 $0.9466.
12:18-12:53, after three no-trades minutes, did a jump on 12:21's 12.1K $0.95/$0.9468/$0.97/5/7/$0.9484/68/$0.9500/01/$0.9700/$0.95/$0.9471/$0.9468/9 and began mostly very low/no-volume $0.94/6. B/a at 12:28 was 200:1.3K $0.9401/$0.96. Volume was interrupted by 12:35's4.4K $0.9400/68. B/a at 12:36 was 400:1.9K $0.9401/$0.96. Volume was interrupted by 12:43's 4.6K $0.9403 and 12:47's 21.2K $0.9400/81. B/a at 12:47 was 200:1.8K $0.9401/$0.96. Volume was interrupted by 12:49's 6.4K $0.94/$0.9585 and 12:52's 5K $0.952. The period ended on 12:53's 1000 $0.94.
12:54-13:24 began extremely low/no-volume $0.95/6 on 12:54's 1.6K $0.95/6. B/a at 13:02 was 2.3K:600 $0.9505/$0.96, 13:10 1.7K:600 $0.9507/$0.96, 13:20 1.8K:300 $0.9515/$0.96. The period ended on 13:24's 100 $0.9523.
13:25-14:14 began an extremely low/no-volume rise from $0.9516/$0.9646 on 13:32's 273 $0.952/$0.9646. B/a at 13:44 was 200:1.8K $0.9503/$0.97, 13:47 300:1.7K $0.9504/$0.97. Price hit 13:52's 450 $0.9631/$0.97, 14:00's 8.6K $0.9681/$0.9701 and 14:01's 1.2K $0.9701/2. B/a at 14:02 was 1.6K:400 $0.9712/$0.9799, 14:10 600:700 $0.9717/$0.9799. The period ended when price hit 14:13-:14's 27K $0.9722/99.
14:15-15:38, after three no-trades minutes, began a very low-volume sideways $0.9602/$0.97 on 14:18's 100 $0.9602 before diving on 14:35-:37's 7.3K $0.9669/50/61/52/$0.9526/02/03. That began very low-volume sag from $0.9510/20. B/a at 14:28 was 800:5.4K $0.9653/$0.9700, 14:38 600:8.1K $0.9504/20. Price hit 14:56's 3.7K $0.9500/19. B/a at 15:02 was 200:2.7K $0.9500/20, 15:17 300:2.7K $0.9500/20, 15:32 200:2.6K $0.9500/20. The period ended on 15:38's 100 $0.9503.
15:39-16:00 began a higher-volume climb, similar to yesterday (but couldn't make a new high, like yesterday, or even reach today's earlier high), on 15:39's 6.5K $0.9503/10/20/21/40, hit 15:42's 100 $0.9601, 15:43's 100 $0.97, 15:44's 23.5K $0.9650/01/51/02/01/00/$0.9540/03/37/40/$0.9601/$0.9700, 15:45's 100 $0.9537, 15:46's 100 $0.9619, saw 15:47's b/a 400:9.4K $0.9537/$0.97, did 15:47's 1.6K $0.9537/40/$0.9601/$0.97/$0.9601, did 15:48's ~23.4K $0.9601/$0.97/$0.9601/00/$0.97/$0.9600, ... saw 15:56's b/a 6.1K:17.5K $0.96/$0.97, 15:58's b/a 1.2K:17.3K $0.95/$0.97. The period and day ended on 15:59's ~5.7K $0.9500/03/$0.97/$0.9500/03/... $0.9548 and 16:00's 104 $0.95.
There was one AH 18:19 100 $0.98 buy - probably a desperation move.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 82,677, 28.89% of day's volume, with a $0.9540 VWAP. For today's trade volume, the count and percentages seem within normal ranges. There were just two "larger larger trades". Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:34 16825 $0.9121 $0.9710 $15,891.34 $0.9445 5.88% 30.07% Incl 09:34 $0.9412 5,000
10:38 13100 $0.9200 $0.9464 $12,090.78 $0.9230 4.58% 17.05% Incl 10:36 $0.9200 8,100
12:01 24950 $0.9215 $0.9500 $23,612.57 $0.9464 8.72% 33.59%
12:17 1590 $0.9439 $0.9500 $1,504.77 $0.9464 0.56% 33.17%
12:53 56659 $0.9400 $0.9700 $53,813.34 $0.9498 19.80% 34.35% Incl 12:47 $0.9401 4,850 $0.9456 4,850
12:49 $0.9585 5,000 12:52 $0.9520 5,000
13:24 8500 $0.9500 $0.9602 $8,112.23 $0.9544 2.97% 34.57%
14:14 41350 $0.9502 $0.9799 $40,008.91 $0.9676 14.45% 39.22% Incl 14:13 $0.9799 11,016 14:14 $0.9550 8,400
15:38 40265 $0.9500 $0.9700 $38,451.71 $0.9550 14.07% 39.05%
16:00 80188 $0.9500 $0.9700 $76,840.76 $0.9583 28.02% 31.10% Incl 15:44 $0.9600 9,139 $0.9540 6,861
15:48 $0.9600 4,461 5,000 $0.9601 5,000
18:19 100 $0.9800 $0.9800 $98.00 $0.9800 0.03% 31.13%
Note the buy percentages were much weaker than yesterday's all day long. Even the attempt to reproduce the late-day surge, on high volume (~28% of volume in the last 20 minutes today vs. ~25% in the last 13 minutes, or ~46% in the last 45 minutes yesterday) came nowhere near the 64%/67% seen in those periods yesterday.
The buy percentage was relatively stable, as well as being low, all day and the VWAP movements indicate that the trades were mostly selling into rising bids (or "behind the curtain" intra-broker trades?) as the attempt to move price higher by unknown entities continued, IMO.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 5.43% 0.22% 2.07% 0.17% 45.23%
Prior -3.16% -0.24% -0.83% 2.98% -3.36%
Unlike yesterday, all the movements look positive, including volume. That's a natural result of yesterday's late-day surge as the following day's open and initial trading range are established relative to the close by some mechanism, of which I'm ignorant, and with the relatively low-volume pushing up occurring we would expect this sort of improvement ... until the shorters decided to pile in, if they do.
On my minimal chart we closed above the rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) resistance, $0.9414, for the second day, theoretically confirming a breakout. But the close was right at $0.95, which is the top of the anticipated $0.94/5 resistance. We had higher OLHC on rising, and relatively high, volume. The fast EMA continues to pull up and away from the slow EMA. The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue diverging with the upper limit rising faster than the lower limit declines, giving a rising mid-point.
With rising volume and the appearance of the trading alerts I guess I have to concede that the manipulation is being successful and we're likely to keep moving up for now.
That's a sure sign the shorters will jump in because I switched positions. Fortunately, my ego is less bruised because yesterday I said { ... based on this I'm sticking with weakness most likely, unless the price pushers appear again, ... }. They did appear and so the game is still afoot.
On my one-year chart the 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued rising and the 50 and 200-day SMAs continued declining. If we hold this range the 10-day will continue rising nine days (could stay that way a long time since only 10-days are considered), the 20-day will again continue rising four of the next five days, the 50 will drop another ~22 days, and the 200 about 17xish days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in everything but ADX-related. Williams %R and full stochastic were overbought. RSI and momentum moved above neutral.
Today marginal improvement occurred in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum and each but accumulation/distribution are above neutral. Marginal weakening occurred in Williams %R and full stochastic and both fell out of overbought and are above neutral. ADX-related was relatively flat.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8692 and $0.9620 ($0.8708 and $0.9547 yesterday), are diverging with an upper limit rising faster than the lower limit is falling, raising the mid-point.
All in, with the addition of rising, and relatively high, volume, the other metrics suggesting bullish movement are bolstered. As mentioned above, I have to concede that the manipulation up is working, especially with the appearance of the alert notices seen yesterday and the prior day.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions. Short percentage is just below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage fell to well below what is needed for sustained appreciation. I think the low short percentage is due to higher percentages of intra-broker trades (brokers selling owned shares or the manipulators, buy and sell, working through the same brokerage house?). The low buy percentage is likely due to "selling into strength", which may also support the intra-broker trades thesis.
The spread widened and was produced similarly to yesterday's - open and go high early and remain more or less high most of the day, with a few spikes to new highs.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after improvement for five consecutive days, held steady at 11 negatives and 13 positives. Change since 11/02 is $0.0831, 9.54%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4240%, 0.5016%, 0.1931%, 0.1218%, -0.4019, %-0.5046%, -0.7608%, -0.7208%, -0.6795%, and -0.7820%.
All in only the buy and short percentages continue suggesting near-term weakness. Everything else suggests near-term strength. I have to give up on factoring in the conflicts for now as the manipulation higher is obviously working well, finally, with volume coming in now.
Bill
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