Replies to post #222589 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[risk on]

Well, the issue tech wise / pattern wise , for me, is the giant W pattern seen over the past 18 months. Anytime we have seen that pattern , spy goes on a tear for quite a long time , BUT....those " Ws" begetting big runs occur AFTER major sell offs. This recent W comes after a seven year run up. So, I went back over the entire market history to find another example of a W after a run up, and I did locate ONE, just one in the 1950s, and after the run up , a similar W in breadth and depth , which saw a temp move higher ( new ATH ) , then a retrace back below the two low points that formed the W .

Anecdotal at best is all that is, but there's been a seven year run up, the retrace has yet to occur, and there are weekly and daily gaps below to be filled ( all spy gaps have filled , over time ) the lowest of which is 186.63.

A large part of this run is hype around what the market " thinks " is coming w the new administration that's coming, and there may be positive market take aways from that , but there are also long standing fundamental market issues that have in no way been resolved , and the " new guy" won't maJically come in and do that either. When expectations meet reality , then we shall see.

[risk on]

222 is R for spy. Three days in eight, spy has had a chance to blow past it, and has yet to do so. 11/30 and today should of been sure fire done deals, but ended up seeing a runaway from, although today there was a move back towards it, this a.m. Should of seen it passed. It's not the intraday that matters either IMO, it's the closing price that matters.