Replies to post #79349 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jbog]

Why would one short Ariad at this time?

1) The stock has increased 125% this year to a Marketcap of around $2.6 Bil.

2) At $2.6 Bil this company has to perform with a second product or it'll drop in half (or more) overnight.

3) The approval of that 2nd product is no longer in Ariads hands, it's under full control of the FDA and if the FDA wants anything more Ariad is in a heap of trouble quickly.

4) The upside of getting FDA Approval is minuscule compared to the downside of a FDA rejection.

If you'll lay out all the probabilities of Ariad running into a hiccup being short isn't a obscene bet.


There is a notion that the Shorts are holding this stock down. If anyone has any proof of it happening, or how they are holding the stock down I'd like to hear it.