The economy is nothing like 2000. I agree it currently looks similar in chart pattern. Just as the double and triple tops were a sure bet when the sp500 hit them, it turned out NOT to follow thru. I have been looking at the slew of recent data and it seems that the dollar is destined to run up and break recent highs within next few months.
You have to marry the chart position and determine if fundamentals match. I did this for late 2015 when everyone was absolutely sure wave 5 was about to start. I saw a fundamental picture that stated the exact opposite. Sure looks true today. Wage growth the prior 2 months was much higher than expected. All domestic economic indicators are pointing to an acceleration. What this latest number suggests is that wages are not yet going to spark much higher and it will not yet cause inflation fears to materialize.
I will say that (IF) the dollar was to fall hard here the stock market will immediately see a much stronger and longer wave 3 (assuming this is wave 3). the economy is like a super tanker. It takes a long time to stop and reverse course. Right now, for the last full year, we have been increasing speed, not slowing down. Very doubtful the dollar can crash if the economy holds up this nicely.
Nope, I still see 2240 as the top of some sort for this current SPX rally. Slow and steady as I have stated here a month ago. Initial spike followed by a slow grind. Not a good one sided play because the action is to damn slow.
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