Replies to post #27778 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/30 2016 EOD

Ignoring TFH, my best bet is consolidation. Conflicts prevail - conventional TA SMAs continued to decline, oscillators improved, volume sucked and range was within the triangle. Low Bollinger limit is being pushed lower. My unconventional stuff also has conflicts in buy and short percentages, VWAP and spread movements and volume sucked.

In such cases I must call on my TFH.

If the $1 AH trades (see below) have effect, shorters will be on this like flies on stink. Heck, they may be on it regardless if the recent (last couple months) short interest reports are any indication.

Given the mechanical (read that as risk/reward and cost) advantage lies with the shorters, I see no way those trying to manipulate price higher, sans improvements in co. fundamentals, can succeed.

Game, set, match to "T. Shorters" - add "weakening bias" to the consolidation call.

At 18:28 two trades, x 100, x 1.9K, for $1 each appeared. I suspect "setting the table". Seen similar before, but not for a long while now.

The day began early with extremely low/no-volume trading at $0.8669 and slowly moved range up to begin $0.880x/$0.89xx, maintaining the extremely low/no-volume (through 10:48 only ~18.7K, 11:21 ~24.9K). Eventually (~10:51) the range became extremely compressed and remained that way until a large-volume 15:14 minute pushed price up to start the planned EOD rise.

Notable was that 11:29 saw a big change in the bid, going from low-hundreds quantity to ~26K. Looks like the west coasties wanted to put the bottom in at $0.88 because every time $0.88 was best bid we saw the same quantities from the same exchanges (MMs)? Weak volume and very flat and narrow trading continued until the EOD volatility started at 15:14 began.

There was one $0.88 x 500 pre-market trade.

09:30-10:44 opened the day with a 1,760 sell & 111 more, all for $0.8669. Then came 9:33's b/a of 1K:1.9K $0.8700/81, 9:36's 1.1K $0.87, 9:38's 100 $0.8698, 9:40's b/a 8.7K:4.1K $0.88/$0.8940, 9:40's 591 $0.8700/20/$0.8801, 9:42's 600 $0.8821/$0.8940 (100), 9:43's b/a 100:100 $0.8801/$0.8839, 9:48'S 100 $0.8939, 9:49'S 150 $0.882, 9:53'S 1k $0.8863, 9:54'S b/a 200:200 $0.8801/$0.8939, 9:57's 100 $0.8810, 10:04's b/a 200:200 $0.8801/$0.8939, 10:05's 1K $0.8848/$0.8939, 10:06's 250 $0.8939, 10:08's 102 $0.8925, 10:11's 250 $0.8858, 10:15's 1K $0.8916, 10:15's b/a ~300:1K $0.8801/$0.8925, 10:16's 3K $0.8905, 10:17's 1.3K $0.8900/12, 10:18's b/a 350:400 $0.8801/$0.8924, 10:19's 100 $0.8924, and 10:23's b/a 325:600 $0.8803/99.

That began extremely low/no-volume $0.8860/99 with slowly falling highs. B/a at 10:32 was 125:700 $0.8803/96, 10:45 325:1.1K $0.8803/96. The period ended on 10:44's 1K $0.8869

10:45-15:07, after one no-trades minute, began a very low-no-volume decline on 10:46's 300 $0.8850/95. B/a at 10:49 was 325:2.2K $0.8803/95. Range bottomed on 10:52's 100 $0.8803 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.8803/73 with falling highs. B/a at 10:58 was 400:1.3K $0.8805/74. Volume was interrupted by 11:02's 5.3K $0.8805/73. B/a at 11:04 was 200:900 $0.8805/73, 11:18 200:1K $0.8805/65. Range tightened to $0.8801/62 at 11:22. B/a at 11:22 was 300:500 $0.8805/63, 11:24 900:200 $0.8806/62 (bots jiggling the offer).

Volume was interrupted by 11:25's 3.4K $0.8806/0/1, 11:27's 2.5K $0.8800/6, and 11:28's 700 $0.8800/53. That was followed by 11:29's b/a becoming 26K:500 $0.8800/60. Related? Don't know. That's about the time we used to see west coasties appear. B/a at 11:47 was 26K:200 $0.8800/62, 11:49 800:200 $0.8804/62, 12:02 800:100 $0.8816/62. Volume was interrupted by 12:03-:04's ~4.4K $0.8862/75->$0.882/62. B/a at 12:12 was 100:200 $0.8823/62, 12:32 125:400 $0.8827/62. B/a at 12:50 was 26.2K:200 $0.8800/62 (bottom support again from west coasties?). Volume was interrupted by 12:50-:55's aggregate 5.3K. B/a at 13:01 was 300:100 $0.8802/59, 13:16 500:5.6K $0.8806/60, 13:33 100:5.1K $0.8808/60.

Range moved to $0.8800/60 when volume was interrupted by 13:35-:37's aggregate 22K $0.8800/60 and 13:47's 5.3K $0.8800/60. B/a at 13:52 was 200:5.7K $0.8801/60, 14:03 23.2K:300 $0.8800/02. Volume was interrupted by 14:13's ~4.7K $0.8800/2. B/a at 14:17 was 500:5.2K $0.8804/60 (MMs jiggling bid), 14:35 400:200 $0.8833/57, 14:49 200:800 $0.8853/57, 15:02 400:900 $0.8856/7. The period ended on 15:07's 100 $0.8857.

15:08-16:00, after seven no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume couple of steps up from $0.8900/25 (mostly $0.8901 initially) on 15:14's ~16.1K $0.8857/60/75/$0.8900/01/25/01/23/25. B/a at 15:16 was 10.1K:1.6K $0.8900/25, 15:34 700:500 $0.8903/25 (bots jiggling bid). 15:44's 1.6K hit $0.8925/87. B/a at 15:48 was 600:4.5K $0.8914/87. Trade through 15:50 was very low/no-volume $0.8925/87. B/a at 15:54 was 500:4.8K $0.8915/87. Trade 15:54-:57 was $0.8913/87, 15:58 $0.8918/9->$0.8987->$0.8919/17/10/00/01->$0.8987. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.3K $0.8902/1 and 16:00's 106 $0.89.

There were two AH $1 trades 18:38:28: x 100 & x 1.9K. Someone "setting the table" for tomorrow?

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 3 larger trades (>=5a & 1 4K+K) totaling 14,600, 11.60% of day's volume, with a $0.8863 VWAP, slightly lower than the day's $0.8872. The count and percentage of day's trade volume are well below "normal".

 
 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:44   17313 $0.8669 $0.8940    $15,315.09 $0.8846 13.75% 68.62% 
  15:07   70810 $0.8800 $0.8895    $62,555.72 $0.8834 56.25% 54.14% incl 11:02 $0.8873 5,000 13:35 $0.8859 5,000 
  16:00   34135 $0.8857 $0.8987    $30,373.95 $0.8898 27.11% 57.11% Incl 15:14 $0.8857 4,600 
  18:38    2000 $1.0000 $1.0000     $2,000.00 $1.0000  1.59% 57.97%

Can you say flattish? Even the normal end-of-day bump couldn't move VWAP much. Even with strong buy percentage all day. Note the AH trades $0.11 above the close. You smell anything? Maybe a rat?

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -3.68%   1.99%  -1.24%   1.34% -68.90% 
 Prior     -0.11%  -2.30%   0.00%  -1.10% 402.51%

Well, "they" got the low and close up a bit, on falling and very low volume, natch. No strength suggested in that behavior.

On my minimal chart trade range is comfortably within the rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) adjusted boundaries. Excluding the two outlier AH $1 trades, we have a compressing range with a higher low and close and and lower high and open. Adding in volume down ~69% gives a strong indication of continuing consolidation.

Today's reduced volume allowed the consolidation to produce an intra-day price range which was predominately flattish to creep extremely slowly higher and created a VWAP (see below) that recouped a bit more than yesterday's high-volume loss.

I had mentioned a the experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit was touced a couple days back and wondered if we would see price "pushing" it, as has been the case so often in the relatively recent past. Well, we have the lows touching it four consecutive days now with the limit trending lower three of those days. The push is on. With the upper limit down the first, second and fourth days and the lower limit down the third and fourth days it appears that we'll see range dropping a bit for a while longer and are likely to see the adjusted support of the rising triangle in a few days.

With the recent volumes and short percentages, along with the short interest reports' increases, I suspect the shorters will drive us there relatively quickly. With no widespread positive market sentiment I believe it will not hold long.

Speaking of shorters, I mentioned yesterday I expected lower volume and reduced shorting. Check and check. The short percentage is still high, ~50%, and if the $1 AH trades have the (assumed) desired effect we'll see the shorters in big again in a day or two. They know better than I about these sort of manipulations and lack of improvement in fundamentals and will not let this amateurish attempt go unpunished if it starts looking successful.

On my one-year chart the 20-day SMA is rising again while the 10, 50 and 200-day SMAs continue declining. If we hold this range the 20-day will continue rising four more days, the 10-day will fall seven days, the 50 ~32 days and the 200 forever (well, it only looks that way - it's really about 180ish days).

Yesterday the oscillators I watch all weakened, were below neutral, and all but full stochastic were nearing oversold territory.

Today the extreme flattish low-volume trade with a higher close (unjustified but for the folks causing an elevated buy percentage all day - see below) produce what we would expect, mostly. Every oscillator, but for ADX-related, showed marginal improvement. If/when buy percentage begins behaving in it's normal manner, in concert with the weak fundamentals and known headwinds (de-listing potential, U.S. $ strength, e.g.), the oscillators will weaken again. This sort of flip-flop behavior is consistent with consolidation.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8688 and $0.9568 ($0.8707 and $0.9563 yesterday), are diverging with a falling mid-point as the lower limit falls more rapidly than the upper limit rises.

All in, this keeps me in consolidation with a bearish bias (still mild? hard to sat ATM, but I'm leaning that way ... only very slightly).



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and short percentage is still above my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage made it into the area that would permit sustained appreciation, but on extremely low volume and no consistency in the buy percentage trend and my TFH whispering in my ear (you already know what I think is going on, so I won't repeat ... yet) I'm not going to 1) believe it, 2) buy into it, 3) be swayed by it, 4) etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

The spread ... take note of the note. Sans the AH trades it was a reasonable ~3.7%, suggesting consolidation. Keep in mind though that it was an effect of the usual start and end of day volatility, i.e. manipulations in our case, and it really is likely much more constricted than it appears.

The reason I mention that is this coiled spring behavior is often followed by large moves when the tension from the "spring" releases. maybe the $1 AH trades were an attempt to release the spring?

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 negatives and 9 positives from 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 10/26 is $0.1324, -12.99%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5046%, -0.7608%, -0.7208%, -0.6795%, -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, and -1.4232%.

All in, the conflict between short and buy percentage argues against any firm conclusion. The spread argues for consolidation (ignoring the AH trades and the effective intra-day much narrower spread) and the volume suggests no strength in the VWAP upward movement.

So I figure (ignoring my TFH) consolidation at best.

Bill