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bostonseb

11/29/16 4:17 PM

#57874 RE: baystock1 #57870

Honestly, I think zero.
What the book says is irrelevant. What matters is the true market value of the assets, namely the producing mines (I don't think the undeveloped properties are worth anything, as all the investment has to be put in to exploit their resources and they are basically just a patch of jungle with a few exploration results. I doubt the permits to exploit the mines are worth that much).
Regarding the producing assets, I had previously done DCF analysis of the mines based on their expected production schedules at a 10% discount rate, in relation to an analysis already made by Deloitte for the company a few years back for Namoya, and the order of magnitude is that the mines are worth maybe ~200 million each at the current gold levels. But that doesn't take into account the DRC jurisdiction which is according to most rankings one of the worst places on earth to do business as far as corruption and instability go, so obviously that warrants a big discount to a potential buyer in an auction or else. It's irrelevant that Banro says on its books that Namoya is worth 400 million because that's what it paid to build it. What matters is what it is worth to a buyer, and that's a much lower number.
Let's say they sell the mines for 350-400 million combined. Then they have to withdraw the amounts necessary to terminate the streaming deals attached to them, which means 130 million or so with interest. You are left with 220-270 on a good day. Then take out 200 million of long term debt, some remaining forward sale and local loan to settle (a few million each) and then the current debt of the company (I forget where it stands today exactly but several tens of millions) and you are left with essentially close to 0 or a negative number.
Again, all depends on how you value the assets, but that's in my opinion the likely outcome.