Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/25 2016 EOD
Keep in mid that everything may have been affected by a shortened trading day. Also, we may have seen the beginning of tax-loss selling, although it might seem too early for that. There's no way I can know.
Everything in the (un)conventional TA suggests increasing bearish ATM. Only my daily short percentage and volume suggests the possibility that the price decline may abate. IMO those are insufficient by themselves to believe that likely.
Today was a sort of typical open higher and take a big plunge lower followed by big recovery, a flattish couple hours, another drop about half the original, and a very low-volume rise for the rest of the day.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:03 opened the day with a 1,701 sell for $0.9040 & 100 more for $0.9001. B/a at 9:31 was 300:6K $0.9000/$0.9200. Then came 9:33's 200 $0.92, 9:36's b/a 488:5.9K $0.90/2, 9:42's 1.1K $0.9120 (1K)/$0.9002, 9:45's 47.2K $0.9002/$0.9200->$0.9003/$0.92/1/$0.92, 9:46's 600 $0.9202, 9:47's 300 $0.9260, 9:49's 700 $0.9260, 9:49's b/a 300:200 $0.9253/60, 9:51's 2K $0.9260, 9:52's 100 $0.9260, 953's 100 $0.9260, 9:54's 500 $0.9261, 9:55's 500 $0.9261, 9:56's 1.3K $0.9261->$0.9399->$0.9262, 9:57's b/a 200:500 $0.9262/$0.9400, 9:58's 110 $0.9309, 9:59's 500 $0.9276, 10:00's ~6K $0.9396/99/98/$0.94, 10:02's b/a 400:734 $0.9408/$0.95. The period ended on 10:03's 1.1K $0.9424.
10:04-10:13, after two no-trades minutes, began a mostly very high-volume big drop on 10:06's 46.4K $0.95->$$0.9412/10/07/00->$0.9262/60/51/50/->$0.9399, 10:07's 100 $0.94, 10:08's 800 $0.9372/$0.9254/3, 10:08's b/a of 700:14.9K $0.9254/$0.94, 10:09's 59.3K $0.9342/$0.9256/50->$0.9110->0.9059/00->$0.8928->$0.8901/26/00, and ended the period on 10:13's ~59K $0.9160/32->$0.8921/22/20/00->$0.8850/00->$0.8700->$0.8613/00->$0.8500->$0.84->$0.8326/00->$0.8411->$0.8523.
10:14-10:18 began a medium/high-volume sideways $0.85/$0.8802 on 10:14's 4.6K $0.8533/1/24/62. The period ended on 10:18's 100 $0.8801.
10:19-10:53 began a higher extremely low/no-volume $0.92/4, with extremely low/no-volume falling range after 10:19's 25.2K $0.9098/$0.91/$0.92/$0.9301/$0.94/$0.92 and 10:21's 2.2K $0.9399/90/$0.94/$0.92/$0.9390/$0.94/$0.9399. 10:50's 385 hit $0.9045, 11:01's 200 hit $0.9126/$0.92 and that began $0.9126/58 trading, still on extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 11:17 was 100:2.4K $0.9145/50, 11:22 200:2.1K $0.9104/50. The period ended on 10:53's 2K $0.9009 (100)->$0.9050/1/2/3.
10:54-11:51, after seven no-trades minutes, began [extremely low/no-volume $0.9136/58 on 11:01's 200 $0.92->$0.9126. B/a at 12:02 was 400:1.5K $0.8801/$0.90, 12:15 1.1K:400 $0.8901/$0.90. The period ended on 11:51's 100 $0.9139.
11:52-12:19, after five no-trades minutes, did large drop on 11:57's 5.2K $0.9150 (5K)/38->$0.9050, 12:00's 10.2K $0.9087/97/86/96/50/88/10/19/00/09/00 and 12:01's 5.2K $0.90->$0.89->$0.8810/71/01. After 12:03's 300 $0.8803 range stepped up on 12:06's 800 $0.90/$0.8901/$0.90. Then came an extremely low/no-volume $0.8901/$0.90. The period ended on 12:19's 600 $0.90.
12:20-12:42, after 10 no-trades minutes, began [extremely low/no-volume $0.8898/$0.9004 after 12:29's 5K $0.91/2->$0.9325->$0.9001/$0.91->$0.9002->$0.93->$0.9002/1. The period ended on 12:42's 686 $0.9004.
12:43-13:00, after one-no-trades minute, had b/a at 12:44 of 200:1.3K $0.9001/$0.92, began an extremely low/no-volume EOD volatility (if one can call it that) climb up doing 12:44's 372 $0.9004/86, 12:48's 100 $0.92, 12:50's 204 $0.903, 12:51's 1.2K $0.9154, 12:51's b/a 8K:100 $0.9050/$0.92, 12:52's 434 $0.9095/$0.92, 12:53's 1K $0.92, 12:54's 200 $0.91, 12:55's 1.4K $0.94, 12:57's 3.2K $0.915/$0.92, 12:58's 5K $0.91/2->$0.9150->$0.91/2->$0.9150/$0.92->$0.94->$0.9252->$0.91/2, and ended the period and day on 12:59's 6K $0.9050->$0.9125/$0.94->$0.9101/$0.9050/$0.94->$0.9101->$0.92, and 13::00's 2,099 $0.91.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 197,814, 51.83% of day's volume, with a $0.9007 VWAP. The count seems in an appropriate range for today's trade volume but the percentage is even more excessive than yesterday's ~39%. Check where they're clustered in the breakdown following. Took the early buy percentage way lower even thought we had 25K at very near the day's high.
When I saw the behavior it made my TFH wonder if the shorters piled in in attempt to crush whomever was trying to push price higher. The daily short percentage is high enough to support this, although just a little above my desired range's mid-point. It's not strong enough to give a high level of confidence though. So that thesis rests entirely on the observed behavior.
Check movements of VWAP, percentage of trade volumes, and buy percentages and draw your conclusions. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:03 66690 $0.9001 $0.9424 $61,473.53 $0.9218 17.48% 79.77% Incl 09:45 $0.9200 5,800 28,700
10:13 165611 $0.8300 $0.9500 $148,258.00 $0.8952 43.40% 54.86% Incl 10:06 $0.9400 25,531 10:09 $0.8928 42,321
10:13 $0.8400 13,558 $0.8500 5,000
10:13 $0.8600 5,000 $0.8800 4,000
10:13 $0.8850 4,000 $0.8900 5,000
10:18 55022 $0.8500 $0.8831 $48,072.84 $0.8737 14.42% 31.68% Incl 10:16 $0.8600 5,000 $0.8683 5,000
10:16 $0.8799 11,700 10:17 $0.8790 7,500
10:53 26122 $0.8810 $0.9200 $23,684.24 $0.9067 6.84% 37.15% Incl 10:19 $0.9400 8,750 10,954
11:51 6478 $0.9126 $0.9200 $5,920.43 $0.9139 1.70% 36.69% Incl 11:37 $0.9136 5,000
12:19 25516 $0.8801 $0.9150 $23,009.50 $0.9018 6.69% 35.77% Inc; 11:57 $0.9150 5,000
12:42 7200 $0.8988 $0.9325 $6,522.84 $0.9060 1.89% 35.34%
13:00 21209 $0.9004 $0.9400 $19,415.30 $0.9154 5.56% 34.40%
What really made me think shorters attacking were those 15-minutes of periods ending at 10:13 and 10:18 which were ~58% of day's volume and moved VWAP down -5.22% and buy percentage from almost 80% to ~32%. Note however that early buy percentage was generated by the all too common early open high and go higher, although today was a very slow low/no-volume flat and rise. Normally we then get a fall or even a plunge but today's was really beyond that which is normally seen.
This thesis, of course, fits my TFH thesis about warrant holders and shorters battling so I'm pre-disposed to assign these sorts of behaviors to the shorters and the extremely low/no-volume pushes upward to the warrant holders.
It's entirely possible I'm all wet.
Regardless, note that no noteworthy recovery with a combination of good volume, VWAP and buy percentage occurred during the rest of the holiday-shortened trade day. That's a bit misleading though if one checks on price movements.
The early part of the period ending at 10:53 had a nice quick one minute recovery to $0.94 in the first minute, 10:19. Unfortunately, by 10:25 trade had begun the long, slow, excruciatingly low/no-volume sag and flattish behavior before beginning the day's final "big" drop at 11:57.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.11% -5.84% 2.54% -0.98% 209.52%
Prior -3.62% -2.60% -1.44% 1.54% 62.58%
The one apparent good thing - a nice high of $0.95 - was the trigger for the big drop. It occurred in the first traded minute, 10:06, of the period ending at 10:13. I read the other metrics as more indicative of the day's behavior. Specifically, the movement of the low and close combined with the movement of the volume is a big negative flag ... unless one is disposed towards being contrarian and would believe this was a "flush". To them I would say I don't think the volume was high enough and the VWAP (see below) movement wasn't big enough.
This looks more to me like the common fleecing applied to other MMs' bots, momo/day traders, and/or hapless longer-term traders or investors, by the shorters' bots (? I don't know) or MMs' bots. I suspect it was kicked off by the shorters and the MMs, who don't care much about price, as they happily participated. As long as MMs get paid for providing liquidity (especially by naked shorting) price doesn't matter, usually, because the naked shorting has the effect of depressing price, sans a groundswell of positive market sentiment, and the MMs can do covering buys locking in profits. This could also leave them short-term long, leading to them holding price up a bit to reap further profits.
Yesterday I noted { Conventional TA says confirming a break below on rising volume should result in a leg down to a prior support/resistance point. There's a pause point, not really a known support, at 11/1's $0.83 but the real first potential apparent support would be 11/3's $0.75. } Today our low hit the "pause point" mentioned. The expected behavior would be to continue toward $0.75 or the Fibonacci 61.8% price point.
On my minimal chart volume around triple yesterday's combined with a high above the $0.94/5 resistance, a low below a 50% retrace of the recent leg up, and a close below yesterday's suggest growing weakness.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band limits, which I noted a few days back suggested a move coming in a few days, are now very close and today may have been the start of the move, unfortunately expected (by me) to be lower.
We are now completely below the very short-term rising triangle (lower-right orange lines) and we'll be awaiting the development of the pattern to determine new trend line points.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
Just using this chart the near-term outlook would be bearish as we continue consolidation.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA is now flattening for a few days, making very small oscillations. The 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs continue dropping and if we hold the current level will fall one and thirty more days respectively.
The ten day SMA is above the 20-day for the fourth consecutive day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had marginal improvement was in RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. RSI was below neutral and the latter two were above neutral. Weakening was seen in the rest and they were below neutral.
Today RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R and ADX-related all experienced weakening. Improvement occurred in accumulation/distribution (marginally) and full stochastic. Momentum fell below neutral, bringing all oscillators now below neutral. Full stochastic's %K is about to cross above %D ("fast" & "slow" components) though and that should put it on track to get above neutral with any briefly sustained move higher by price.
That last item offers little near-term optimism though - it needs a lot of help from the other oscillators.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8735 and $0.9599 ($0.8375 and $0.9805 yesterday) continue with both converging toward the mid-point with the lower limit rising more quickly. Today may have been the start of the move it has suggested would occur within a few days.
All in, the consolidation now moves from "increased bearish bias" to "strong bearish bias". The outlier is that the volume may have been relatively large enough to indicate a "flush" occurred and we have bottomed.
I don't believe this to be the case.
Yesterday I noted { Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but this doesn't result in the normal "that's good" ... } and discussed the reasons why it wasn't good. Today behavior seems to have born out the validity of the reasoning.
Today they both fell, and that is good, but buy percentage is now down in the range which suggests further VWAP weakening. Thankfully, short percentage is just below my desired range's (needs re-check) upper limit and suggest "normalcy" may return. This would suggest the MMs aren't far from market-neutral and today the shorters were not piling in. This offers hope that any remaining near-term decline will be slow(ing) but needs support from other metrics for there to be any confidence in that.
The spread really spread! It entered the area that, when in a down trend, says more big movement lower is likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 15 negatives and 9 positives for the second consecutive day. Change since 10/21 is -$0.1787, -16.57%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6795%, -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, and -1.7433%.
All in, a bearish bias is suggested by these readings, but for the short percentage offering some suggestion of lessening bearishness.
Bill
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