Typically Strong December Slightly Weaker in Election Years By Almanac Trader
* November 22, 2016
December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% on each index. It’s also the top Russell 2000 month and third best for Russell 1000 (1979). December is NASDAQ’s second best month. Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback. Conversely if the market has been through the ringer of late and December is down as well, then expect a rally to ensue shortly.
In the last sixteen election years, December’s ranking slip modestly to #3 S&P 500, #5 NASDAQ, but DJIA remains #2. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in nine election years in December. The average small cap gain in all nine years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
Market trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today for a Free 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to continue reading our latest market analysis and trading recommendations. get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse.
Early December strength frequently fades into mid-month By Almanac Trader
* November 28, 2016
Over the most recent 21-year time period, December has developed a pattern of opening with strength lasting until about the third day for DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 (NASDAQ and Russell 2000 tend to run a bit higher into the sixth or seventh trading day) before moving sideways and finally lower into mid-month giving back any gains and then some by the eleventh trading day. From there, the major indices generally consolidate until the fourteenth or fifteenth trading day before rallying to close out December. Early tax-loss selling is the most likely culprit from this first-half decline. In most years, buying any first-half December weakness ahead of mid-month results in solid gains by yearend.
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