Replies to post #20206 on Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[Despicable_Z]

I think Rexista will have a hard time competing against Oxycontin also. There is little incentive for existing Oxycontin users to switch. You also have to convince doctors to prescribe your new drug over Oxycontin.

Why do you think it will be a hard sell to have Doctors prescribe abuse deterrent Rexista vs regular Oxy?

[AngeloFoca]

Thanxs for all the numbers numbers.

1. I think Rexista will have a hard time competing against Oxycontin also. 2. There is little incentive for existing Oxycontin users to switch. 3. You also have to convince doctors to prescribe your new drug over Oxycontin.

I think it will depend on the quality and financial muscles of the partner... for Pfizer or J & J... it would be a walk in the park.

1. I think it's pretty well known that Oxycontin, although prescribed as 2x a day doesn't really last 12 hours... that is what I would hammer home... assuming Rexista XR lasts a full 12 hours - which I believe it does... a well laid out chart showing that advantage would go a long way to convince both doctors and patients to switch.

2. I would price it the same as Oxycontin and offer a 25% to 30% voucher that's good for 12 months.

3. The old "never fail" I have a couple of airline tickets and a 3 day stay at this wonderful new golf resort that I can't use... wonder if you would "do me a favor" and take them off my hands!!!

I think Rexista can/will sell $60 million on the 1st year, with a $100 million expenditure, $200 million second year with $80 million expenditure, $350 million third year with $60 million expenditure, and $400 to $450 million steady state thereafter with a $40 million a year expenditure.

p.s. IPCI can/will profit from the outset... including approximately ~ $20 million in royalties the first year out.

p.s.s. - the above figures are reflections of what I think will happen once Rexista XR is accepted on the formularies.

[Samsa]

Numbers....good post. This is exactly what I what I referring too in trying to keep realistic expectations. your absolutely correct in that market penetration is much different for a new drug than a generic. I keep going back to my favorite twin SUPN and Trokendi, which is a New Drug that is going head to head against Tropomax a 2.4 billion dollar a year drug. after 3 years they are now just hitting the 200 million mark in sales. they have been experiencing quarter over quarter explosive prescription growth. It still has taken this long to see serious market penetration and its the same thing where they are an XR drug going up against a standard drug so the benefit is once a day formula.

I think Angelo is onto something with his comments about the partner is the key as to market penetration. A Pfizer or J& J would be great. he points out what I also was saying as to how much is actually going to be profit. discounts, pricing structure a lot of variables that we dont have privy too as well as the actual percentage of profit share. That being said, that doesn't mean that Rexista shouldnt see tremendous market share. It just wont be immediate.